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Hi @RayDalio! I'll try to address your concerns here. Happy to chat at greater length. 1: money usually follows a path of Sov->MoE->UoA. Bitcoin is not a very useful MoE today, you're right. It's also incredibly nascent though in all regards, that can come over time. https://twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1328731042690306048
2/ yes BTC is volatile, but decreasingly with every ~4 year market cycle. Realized volatility has fallen from 300+ to 100 to now ~60. It's only an 11 year old asset. We expect volatility to continue falling over time as it shifts from an early stage speculative asset to maturity
3/ as for government regulation - every crypto bull run has brought it to the attention of a new level of government regulator. In 2013 it was the FBI. 2017 the SEC. This run I expect it to become worrisome to central banks and treasury departments, but as with
4/ everything disruptive, it may "capture" the elites. This recent election brought Cynthia Lummis to the senate for example, a prominent bitcoin advocate. Some pensions and endowments are earning their highest returns from cryptocurrency.
5/ if in another year, 15%+ of Americans and most large family offices, endowments, and pensions, have exposure, that may make it unattractive for politicians to attack.
