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I have been debating which #CSPC2020 session to join all morning - Horizon Scanning won out only because I knew someone would live tweet Roles & Responsibilities of Academic Science Societies in informing Policy
(I thought virtual sessions would mean less #FOMO
)
(I thought virtual sessions would mean less #FOMO
)
I knew @this_is_farah would pull through. Check out her recap of the @RyersonU session here: https://twitter.com/this_is_farah/status/1328696700991639552
The Horizon Scan Club is a session held by @PolicyHorizons, and we'll be predicting what the future looks like with COVID disruptions, just like what @BlaiseHebert, @clairewoodside1, and @_MartinBerry do for the govt of 
everyday.
everyday.
So what is foresight?
It's an assessment of what might happen in the future. The goal is not to predict the future, but to provide roadmaps to likely events and how to get there (or avoid it).
This helps politicians plan policies and react to future events.
It's an assessment of what might happen in the future. The goal is not to predict the future, but to provide roadmaps to likely events and how to get there (or avoid it).
This helps politicians plan policies and react to future events.
Today we're going to be modeling an influence cascade - looking at the consequences of an event.
There's two big things to remember, the 'what' and the 'so what'. If this event happens, how will it impact everything else?
There's two big things to remember, the 'what' and the 'so what'. If this event happens, how will it impact everything else?
There's no data about the future, so there's no point debating it's plausibility.
So instead we'll go with three orders of change
1st order - you already see evidence of it now
2nd - consequences of what is happening now
3rd - a different world, rely on your intuition
So instead we'll go with three orders of change
1st order - you already see evidence of it now
2nd - consequences of what is happening now
3rd - a different world, rely on your intuition
When you're looking at these cascades, think STEEP V:
Social, Technology, Economy, Environmental, Political and Values
(and also how they interconnect!!)
Social, Technology, Economy, Environmental, Political and Values
(and also how they interconnect!!)
Now we're jumping into the first workshopping session. We'll be looking at office surveillance in the remote office, as described by the @washingtonpost article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/04/30/work-from-home-surveillance/
Points brought up during the conversation:
- who has access to all this video data?
- what about the family members in the background that may not be aware/conscious that you're recorded?
- internet quality is connected to socioeconomic status and lag can flag you as unproductive
- who has access to all this video data?
- what about the family members in the background that may not be aware/conscious that you're recorded?
- internet quality is connected to socioeconomic status and lag can flag you as unproductive
- important discussions will be avoided because people don't know who will be reading/listening in.
- lots of tracking of vulnerable populations (esp with school tracking)
- lots of tracking of vulnerable populations (esp with school tracking)
This leads to 2nd and 3rd order problems like
- lack of trust between employer and employee
- new social norms
- commercial data surveillance industry to spy on what they can't see
- (even steeper) rise of hyper-productivity and the decline in mental health
- lack of trust between employer and employee
- new social norms
- commercial data surveillance industry to spy on what they can't see
- (even steeper) rise of hyper-productivity and the decline in mental health
- rise of a (worse) surveillance state
- computers running so much software that they can't function correctly (reduced productivity)
- stifled creativity and autonomy
- employer liability for events recorded (child abuse, criminal behavior, etc)
- no back channels
- computers running so much software that they can't function correctly (reduced productivity)
- stifled creativity and autonomy
- employer liability for events recorded (child abuse, criminal behavior, etc)
- no back channels
Also in case anyone wants to know how they visualized this for us:
It's really interesting to see where they're putting our comments, because I'm not guessing what is a 1st and 2nd all that well!
It's really interesting to see where they're putting our comments, because I'm not guessing what is a 1st and 2nd all that well!
Our second prompt is #biohacking - specifically the ones that injected themselves with a homemade COVID vaccine (see UnNatural Selection documentary on @netflix)
Comments:
- decrease in trust of science
- taking up space that is needed for COVID patients
- rise of n=1 studies with no controls
- viral (internet & illness) challenges that can cause serious harm
- rise of conspiracy theories
- should everyone have access to making vaccines?
- decrease in trust of science
- taking up space that is needed for COVID patients
- rise of n=1 studies with no controls
- viral (internet & illness) challenges that can cause serious harm
- rise of conspiracy theories
- should everyone have access to making vaccines?
- increases the risk of ill-intentioned or unethical science experiments
- lowering the barrier to access bioweapons
- grey market vaccines
- impossible to regulate medicine
- makes science more accessible (more people participate)
- makes science less accessible (+ regulations)
- lowering the barrier to access bioweapons
- grey market vaccines
- impossible to regulate medicine
- makes science more accessible (more people participate)
- makes science less accessible (+ regulations)
And finally Prompt 3: using the mircrobiome as an alternative to COVID-19 (and other) vaccines.
- opportunistic bacterial infections as they add c. diff by accident
- why take a microbiome pill over just fermented food or probiotics?
- grey market for poop
- #AMR crisis
- opportunistic bacterial infections as they add c. diff by accident
- why take a microbiome pill over just fermented food or probiotics?
- grey market for poop
- #AMR crisis
- changing regulation metrics to broader criteria (since microbiome is linked to tons of things)
Some 3rd order ones:
- genetically engineered microbiomes for an optimal human
- insurance companies sequencing your
- people refusing antibiotics to 'save' their designer gut
Some 3rd order ones:
- genetically engineered microbiomes for an optimal human
- insurance companies sequencing your
- people refusing antibiotics to 'save' their designer gut
And the last prompt: the rise of conspiracy theories.
Comments:
- increased societal divisions
- ideology breaking families and leading to homeless youth
- death of expertise
- ideology determines possible careers
- people entering govt to uncover evidence of conspiracy
Comments:
- increased societal divisions
- ideology breaking families and leading to homeless youth
- death of expertise
- ideology determines possible careers
- people entering govt to uncover evidence of conspiracy
- all knowledge becomes political
- education crisis, either cuz homeless or because groomed to refuse info taught
- social media as an arbiter of truth (and which truth?) or spreader of misinformation
- unregulated homeschooling
- AI as trusted policy maker
- education crisis, either cuz homeless or because groomed to refuse info taught
- social media as an arbiter of truth (and which truth?) or spreader of misinformation
- unregulated homeschooling
- AI as trusted policy maker
Thanks for the @PolicyHorizons team for making us think deeply about the future and try to suss out what will be coming at us in the future.
