Sweden update.

Some good news on cases - 14,570 new cases over the weekend compared with 15,911 last weekend.

1,449 in hospital (46% increase)
160 in ICU (28% increase) https://twitter.com/johnmcclean_ie/status/1326152847193497606
http://c19.se  reporting 36 deaths reported today and 7 day moving average is up to 23.
Hospitalisations still growing exponentially at around 5.5% per day (r^2 0.98).
Weekly deaths growing rapidly (data reasonably complete until the 13th Nov) Ourworldindata.
Excess mortality is already significantly higher in Sweden than in it's nordic peers. https://twitter.com/euromaestro/status/1328393813438717956?s=20
As we start to see some hopeful signs wrt cases - Sweden introduces new measures to help curb the growth of covid. https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1328374556780752899?s=20
Sweden considers closing schools after the Christmas break https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1328049286026645504?s=20
A graphic that covers the various stages of the evolution of the Swedish strategy - perhaps charting it's convergence with the rest of Europe. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1327230581143465984?s=20
A graph that illustrates clearly the failure of the herd immunity strategy. https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1328045594099724289?s=20
The divergence from nordic neighbours - even in the autumn / fall is stark https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1328025702948429824?s=20
Other regions that flirted with a herd immunity strategy are also struggling now . https://twitter.com/andymoz78/status/1327895349818765313?s=20
Hopeful signs today. Cases may still be growing exponentially in Sweden.

Data from Ourworldindata.

log scale : exponential growth appears as a straight line.

Orange dots : cases
Red line : exponential growth (5.5%, r^2 0.97)
Dashed Green : Growth Rate
Similar trend on a linear scale from Ourworlddata website.
14 day incidence still above 7 day incidence doubled. Smoothed cases not dropping / plateauing just yet.
Testing has been constrained in many regions in Sweden, but there are some signs that test positivity which has been rising rapidly may be starting to plateau. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1328510700633853954?s=20
@DavidSteadson reports that there were 61 newly reported covid deaths today. The thread is well worth reading and suggests that tougher recommendations in Region Uppsala are not having an affect yet. https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1328692683418767361
Although the total confirmed cases over the weekend was slightly lower than last week - yesterday was the highest single day surge in Sweden - https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1328772828003520518
Disturbing increase in deaths reported today in Sweden : 96 https://twitter.com/davidsteadson/status/1329047459084038144
@zorinaq has updated his model which was very accurate for Florida to run against the latest Swedish data. Distressingly it predicts that deaths in Sweden will surpass the 1st wave in December. https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1329133636851953665
An interesting analysis of latest death data from Sweden, daily deaths possibly exceeding 30.. https://twitter.com/davidsteadson/status/1329051278249484289
And adjusting for delays Sweden could be seeing as many as 40 deaths a day now -

@zorinaq’s forecast of 100 deaths per day in mid-December seems reasonable.. https://twitter.com/vangennepd/status/1329268750584000517
Any optimism on case numbers from Sweden earlier in the week may have been premature - 7 day moving average rising again.
@greg_travis reports a worsening situation in the USA and Sweden - in contrast to European countries who have taken strong action. https://twitter.com/greg_travis/status/1329811370171314178?s=20
A link to a thread with some info on Swedish excess mortality - which shows a clear divergence from trend roughly equivalent to the number of reported covid deaths.

https://twitter.com/johnmcclean_ie/status/1329547230261506048?s=20
@DavidSteadson reports there were 66 new deaths reported in Sweden today.

This is good thread with interesting analysis of the situation there - including the impact of local measures in Region Uppsala - which do not appear to be working... https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1329800532786114562?s=20
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