2) But this episode highlights that not even most bellicose US hawks want war w/Iran. There's never been any illusion on how ugly & counterproductive that would be. I've said this since GWBush admin & it's more true now than ever, given US public weariness w/Middle East conflict.
3) While neither DC nor Tehran wants war, expect volatility. Sanctions & COVID haven't undercut Iran's regional momentum; engagement w/Biden is unlikely to change that trajectory. Meanwhile, limited fallout from Soleimani strike & Almasri hit suggests more scope for US hardball.
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