Re latest blockbuster on Trump & Iran:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear.html
1) A lame-duck Trump puts the US & the world in peril for next 64 days. He's reckless by nature & embraces fever dreams as policy solutions. He lacks capacity to assess risks or policy process to vet options.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear.html
1) A lame-duck Trump puts the US & the world in peril for next 64 days. He's reckless by nature & embraces fever dreams as policy solutions. He lacks capacity to assess risks or policy process to vet options.
2) But this episode highlights that not even most bellicose US hawks want war w/Iran. There's never been any illusion on how ugly & counterproductive that would be. I've said this since GWBush admin & it's more true now than ever, given US public weariness w/Middle East conflict.
3) While neither DC nor Tehran wants war, expect volatility. Sanctions & COVID haven't undercut Iran's regional momentum; engagement w/Biden is unlikely to change that trajectory. Meanwhile, limited fallout from Soleimani strike & Almasri hit suggests more scope for US hardball.