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After today's official figures on excess all cause mortality up to 6 Nov, my estimate of the current total of excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus stands at
75,000
Of these deaths, 70,528 have already happened. The rest are estimates to bring the data up to date
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75,000
Of these deaths, 70,528 have already happened. The rest are estimates to bring the data up to date
1/
While all cause mortality does not tell us exactly why people died, the figures are rising slower than deaths which doctors directly attribute to Covid-19 (not much, but a little)
And they are happening in the areas with high Covid-19 caseloads.
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And they are happening in the areas with high Covid-19 caseloads.
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Doctors certificates and regional correlations with the disease incidence (both in the sping and now) should be enough to convince rational people that the cause is Covid-19.
To argue otherwise requires quite some contrary evidence.
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To argue otherwise requires quite some contrary evidence.
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This doesn't mean the second wave is like the first. It isn't. It is much more mild and we have much better information.
There is almost a one for one relationship between the daily number and excess deaths this time. That's progress
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There is almost a one for one relationship between the daily number and excess deaths this time. That's progress
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We should recognise that Covid-19 is linked to around 75,000 UK deaths since mid March, not the wholly fictious government number of 52,147
@BBCNews and others should stop using that figure. The fact it is written down daily on a government website doesn't make it true
ENDS
@BBCNews and others should stop using that figure. The fact it is written down daily on a government website doesn't make it true
ENDS
