THREAD

Few things I want to say regarding Afghanistan withdrawal:

1. I'm still very skeptical if the deal can be fully implemented.

2. It is not a peace deal. It was never intended to be. It is a US withdrawal deal. It will *not* bring peace to Afghanistan, come what may.

3. US security establishment has been against the deal since day one. And understandably so, since they believe that a rushed withdrawal will likely harm US national security interests. (cont)

And sure enough, there is enough evidence to suggest that Taliban have not and likely will not completely cut ties with al-Qaeda. After all, they're ideological allies.

(cont)

4. Any US withdrawal by Trump admin without the full understanding with US security establishment will not yield good results and in fact will likely backfire on the ground.

5. Taliban are counting on Trump's rushed withdrawal because they know without US/NATO support, Kabul admin won't last 2 weeks.

6. There are two main PoVs in Pakistan: One, that US withdrawal is in Pak's interests. Second, a rushed US withdrawal might actually harm Pak's interests. So far the latter PoV is in minority though.

7. An Afghanistan without US/NATO presence will likely become a battleground of regional proxy wars (such as India vs Pak) and will likely give players like Russia & China more space. It will also cause setbacks for US influence in the region overall.

8. Islamic State Khorasan (ISKP) is the wild card, which continues to show up from time to time, causing devastating attacks. Both Kabul admin and Taliban blame each other for ISKP. The group will continue to cause problems in Afghanistan in the future.