Thread by @braidedmanga, Ivor Cummins BE (Chem) is a former R&D Manager at HP (sourcre: [...]

Ivor Cummins BE (Chem) is a former R&D Manager at HP (sourcre: https://web.archive.org/web/20201106072419/https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ivor_Cummins), turned Content Creator/Podcast Host/YouTube personality. (Call it what you will.)

Ivor Cummins

Ivor CUMMINS, R&D Manager of HP Inc., Palo Alto (HP) | Contact Ivor CUMMINS

https://web.archive.org/web/20201106072419/https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ivor_Cummins

When Ivor left the Engineering field, he discovered, shockingly, he wasn't doing too good - health-wise - and being unhappy with the answers the doctor could provide him, he sought answers elsewhere, and wound up "co-authoring" a "diet" book with Dr. Jeffrey Gerber.

Dr. Jeffrey Gerber is a Family Medicine doctor who, by all accounts, seems to mainly be a diet pusher.
Below are three reviews I've found from people who seem to have been seeking genuine help, though.

But, that's not why I'm making this thread.

No, this year there has been something called a pandemic going on, and Ivor Cummins has managed to get himself involved since March. He has also managed to be wrong on many, many occasions.

I would like to show the history of Ivor Cummins and Covid-19.
1) this seems to be the earliest tweet.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1235301179602669568
2) he follows up, later, that insulin resistance seems to play a big role
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1235501829775077376

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1235301179602669568

3) because, not surprisingly, Ivor can help with that. ->

His next Covid-19 tweet seems to be several days later, showing a similar chart, pointing out human errors a diet - his diet - can seemingly fix, in a reply.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237089356076273664

Ivor's next Tweet is an ask to confirm the average age of death, with a question that *surely* it's stacked heavily on people with diabetes, etc, right?
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237311474491588613
Followed by a tweet about his diabetes management podcast!
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237321629216247808

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237311474491588613

OK, to the first of Ivor's arrogances.
Ivor is curious of the median age of death for Covid patients. -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237617872001798144

one Kyle Bryan shares a solitary link, and states their average age of death. https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237624774903451648

Ivor has an answer.

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237617872001798144

Ivor continues to ponder this age question...
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237629966566723584

Despite having a solid answer (as above???) claims the age will surely drop (despite his math above) but they're hiding data due to likely complacency? https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237631391430512641

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237629966566723584

but, if the average age of death dropped that would be significantly worse and likely lead to less complacency...
and if you're thinking that it will, and that it's more dangerous, don't start telling 85 year old women they'll be fine https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237675859114409984

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1237675859114409984

And here's Ivor's first *major* contradiction to his current ramblings. Links to the benefits of extensive testing ->
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1238226054000463873

However he currently disagrees with "the testing riff"
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1297787177238241280
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1297982793713164294

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1238226054000463873

Looking quickly at only the death figures for the UK and South Korea, we can see there's definitely one with a better result...

Ivor goes on to release a video, discussing covid-19 with Dr. Paul Mason ( https://denversdietdoctor.com/about-paul-mason-md/)

in which Ivor actually discusses the idea of flattening the curve so as not to overwhelm the health system, now doesn't get it. -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1300523602832433153

March 13th seems to be the same day that @MLevitt_NP2013 is introduced. With a headline that reads "Corona Is Slowing Down", however neither (in retrospect) seem to attribute this to restrictive measures... https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1238522178686992389

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1238522178686992389

For more on Levitt, please see this thread by Twitter user @jocami_ca -> https://twitter.com/jocami_ca/status/1319527032225730560
but for right now, let's continue chronologically.

https://twitter.com/jocami_ca/status/1319527032225730560

Ivor's next several tweets are replies and a few posts (notice the likes, retweets, comments). Mostly neutral or positive towards action on mitigation efforts.
1) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1239514665513869315
2) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240261823108190209
3) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240299523324379136
4) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240301175909552128

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1239514665513869315

Big reaction on the HCQ research... what next?
1) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240314193506709512
2) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240314447677325313
3) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240315459112783872

Now, for HCQ? Too toxic. Won't touch.
4) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1297511582898032640

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240314193506709512

Yet, his current analysis and "insight" has been refuted and countered by actual experts in the field many, many times, including this article in the Business Post on November 8th, which he lauds. So, a "toxic" angle... maybe not -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1325591061943771142/

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1325591061943771142/

I will try, now, to highlight more important Tweets around Ivor's then-current perspectives on Covid-19, as this will be far too long to present a fully chronological tale of his degeneracy, but, where we are now, is a reply to Kevin Bass in anger, for not reading the full tweet

-> https://twitter.com/kevinnbass/status/1240323904700387328

https://twitter.com/kevinnbass/status/1240323904700387328

Alright, so Ivor continues to highlight many deaths involve other issues. -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240341927905701892

something he doesn't ask too often... -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1262820556988186624...

yeah... https://twitter.com/search?q=retweet%20(from%3Afatemperor)&src=typed_query&f=live

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240341927905701892

March 18th Ivor puts out a "Simple Survey", asking his viewers what they would like to do. Isolate the at-risk, or crash the economy, which totally makes both options sound fair and balanced, and exactly what a scientist would do.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240416562781261825

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240416562781261825

Ivor is asked where the evidence for Herd Immunity is for Covid-19? (Note that there is no herd-immunity for Influenza, or another coronavirus.) Ivor asks for data, is offered preliminary evidence and, suggests waiting... because numbers aren't people...
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240426072329670657

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240426072329670657

Only thing accepted here is that medical staff would also have to be protected (duh) -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240427694006898693

continues to show empathy (though, remember he told that woman (85) she'd be OK) towards the at-risk and the aged -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240432497827160065

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240427694006898693

and this is March, mind you, that empathy did not extend to his own mother, who he essentially told (also) would be fine. ->

Continuing on, Ivor is still firm in belief that the pandemic is serious, and that data is data. (but he's not a virus expert)
1) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240580172102975488
2) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240581353135095810

now? Ivor is the judge of valid data -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1304339730155225088

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240580172102975488

Early days Ivor would laud the proven methods that work. Social Distancing. Masks. Hand Washing. ->
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240682649368264709
Now? ->
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1269752330477621253

(note, we did not have a virus spreading as rapidly or as strenuous as covid-19 in 2016-2018)

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1240682649368264709

28th March, 2020 - Ivor uploads an "Excerpt" from his Interview with Feldman, where he outlines his ideas for mitigation strategies. Says Sweden's model is too soft.

Jumping to October 8th for a second, we see Ivor's currrent view that Sweden is the "Gold Standard" in epidemic management, "lest we forget" https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1314222782880849921

Are they, though? (no) https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sweden-having-refused-to-lock-down-is-now-bringing-in-tougher-covid-19-restrictions-as-cases-and-deaths-soar-this-is-the-new-norm-the-prime-minister-said/ar-BB1b5yxz?ICID=ref_fark

further: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-deaths-per-million-exemplars?time=2020-02-22..latest&country=SWE~DNK~NOR~FIN~ISL

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1314222782880849921

March 31st, Ivor uploads a video about the "Taiwan Coronavirus Success Story", in stark contrast to his current views, which laud Sweden as the success of the global pandemic, despite constantly rising cases, hospitalisation, ICU, now death...

What's interesting about Taiwan's strategy is that they have remained open with cases down, but relied on masks, testing, and tracing...
masks work, really - here's an interactive explainer https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/30/science/wear-mask-covid-particles-ul.html

Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

A visual journey through the microscopic world of the coronavirus shows how masks provide an important defense against transmission.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/30/science/wear-mask-covid-particles-ul.html

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1243548967885066242

9) https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1244029188933386240

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1244029188933386240

Now? Masks suck.
Despite all data against him in support of them and Ivor being a man of sound data...
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1315553719145115649

here's a better video, btw, with actual breath -> https://twitter.com/RoseMargaux1/status/1326856821211017216

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1315553719145115649

OK, so, as we can plainly see that Ivor understood what was (and still is!) happening back when, and I want to try get to the point when Ivor just lost it.
On April 1st, we see Ivor explaining (again) the idea of Flattening the Curve - https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1245305971947327493

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1245305971947327493

"flattening the curve" - can be explained well here;
however, Ivor now refuses cases, and would rather take action when ICU is in excess of normal years (when spread is worse than both ICU and hospitalisation), meaning that *any* action...

will not slow the current admission rate, but only slow the admission rate in the coming... possibly two or so months. due to factors including the number of people currently infected/vulnerable/age, and R0, this also means that as those beds fill up, we can't treat other people.

-> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1310314870622031875

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1310314870622031875

Same day (Apr. 1) Ivor tots up this graph, to question wether or not Lockdown or Sweden's "social distancing" measures are working/similar/etc. ->
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1245304936977641474

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1245304936977641474

cpl things. 1) Sweden's death reporting lags. which may account for an error at the time https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting
2) i literally don't know how he calculated those rates. (unless reporting issues change the following OWID numbers for deaths)...

... and the cases in Sweden were nearly 4* higher on average than Denmark, with 2* the population, the larger case rate in Denmark makes no sense.

Ivor tweets about Masks, again.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1245462300934524930

important to note he was very pro, and yes, it was *obvious*...

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1245462300934524930

... as noted in WIRED - mask studies often have many flaws due to either mild flu seasons, controls wearing surgical masks also, ethical issues... that can be read -> https://www.wired.com/story/the-face-mask-debate-reveals-a-scientific-double-standard/
but a *small* help is still a help, and evidence has grown greatly thanks to...

The Face Mask Debate Reveals a Scientific Double Standard

No one complained about the lack of evidence for 20-second hand-washing. So why did we treat face masks differently?

https://www.wired.com/story/the-face-mask-debate-reveals-a-scientific-double-standard/

... conditions (like, you know, being in a pandemic) being in effect. many new studies can be seen here -> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html
here -> https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e2.htm
it's also, as Ivor used to say, quite logical.

Absence of Apparent Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from Two Stylists...

On May 12, 2020 (day 0), a hair stylist at salon A in Springfield, Missouri (stylist A), developed respiratory symptoms and continued working with clients until day 8, when the stylist received a...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

Ivor changed his mind, however, a fair thing to do. However as emerging evidence was coming out in their favor, along with the previous "logic" to them, and seeing "initial Taiwan mech studies", he... *then* researched them and found they didn't work?
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1309494991396507648

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1309494991396507648

Which would be a fair assessment if didn't admit to seeing the Taiwan mech studies first, and didn't have empirical evidence of Taiwan's success, which you still have the video of as the "most important" thing I will ever see.

Apr. 4, Ivor is in the news! -> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8187871/Now-not-time-custard-creams.html

Advocating for that restrictive diet caught some attention as the "social media commentator", is lampooned, and the idea of restrictive eating at a time when supply will be short regardless is brought into question.

Now is not the time to give up custard creams

EVE SIMMONS: It's a very British tradition that offers comfort in even the darkest of times - settling down with a cup of tea and a biscuit

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8187871/Now-not-time-custard-creams.html

of course, the guy who is not being spoken of highly calls it FAKE NEWS and there is only the most constructive of criticisms.
Not that the diet was called into question, more the timing of it.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1246748923911450624

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1246748923911450624

Apr. 9th and I see two tweets where I can see Ivor's points more clearly, if they haven't started to shift. 1) Lockdown early, or it's near-pointless https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1248348303433109527
2) takes days after a new strategy to change mortality curve as it's "baked in" https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1248352006932176896

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1248348303433109527

While I can understand Ivor's "near-pointless" remark, the fact is that it's not completely, and with everyone's effort it can be dramatically helpful. See: Israel. https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1318614894657286146
See: France https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1328417701455302658

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1318614894657286146

While it *may* take longer to work, and requires more effort, it doesn't achieve nothing. the earlier the lockdown is enacted the better, which is what most Western countries attempted to do, now we should be looking at sustainable methods of remaining as open as possible...

... without going into lockdow-release cycles. See this thread full of insights from Prof. Devi Sridhar. ( https://www.ed.ac.uk/profile/devi-sridhar) -> https://twitter.com/raging_steel/status/1325934777220870144

Apr. 10th, Ivor uploads a podcast with Tucker Goodrich, with whom he discusses the pandemic, of note they discuss Italy's response, the first country outside of China to lockdown, with no sign of efficacy (their words, no transcript available), and how it didn't seem to work.

pointed to the quotes about to Italy's lockdown ->

Ivor mentions that "the prevalence, and indeed the deaths, rolled on downwards" with no real change due to the lockdown.
Now, they seem to have every factor down here except the lack of testing.

meaning that they are likely missing a whole host of cases cropping up but either inadequate amounts of testing, or they have missed early cases which are now starting to spread and they will catch late developments.

actually completely understandable.

Especially as this is early days and neither one of these people seem to have done work in a similar field before. (nothing to do with viruses.)

So... it appears that Apr. 10th is when the change is starting to come out (or Ivor's true colours are showing) in the same day posting articles from ZeroHedge https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1248690643234422785 and cebm https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1248694243750744066
why are they issues?

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1248690643234422785

Well, as Ivor points out frequently, he hates "anonymous, incognito trash", but ZeroHedge is a far-right *financial* blog that delves into conspiracy way too often. Now? Covid-19. This blog post he references? Written by Tyler Durden. Who? That guy from Fight Club.

if you have an interest in nutcase websites, then zerohedge is a good one to delve into... https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/zero-hedge/
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

Zero Hedge - Media Bias/Fact Check

CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence. These sources may be untrustworthy for...

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/zero-hedge/

What about CEBM?
CEBM is not exactly a conspiracy website, but it is the "centre for evidence based medicine" which constantly seems to miss (or mischaracterise) so much of the evidence.

as a perfect example, the article Ivor's linked to here: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-deaths-compared-with-swine-flu/
begins with "The age affected structure doesn’t fit with pandemic theory" followed by... a Sherlock Holmes quote... I am not joking. The evidence for the shifting effect on ages comes from...

COVID-19 deaths compared with “Swine Flu” - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

The age affected structure doesn’t fit with pandemic theory Carl Heneghan, Tom Jefferson “It is a capital mistake to theorize

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-deaths-compared-with-swine-flu/

... several sources, including this one: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp0903906
but most all refer to Influenza pandemics and make note that the elderly would typically have antibody resistance. hence, a shift. But, this is regarding policy decisions, mostly.
As mentioned in the article...

The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics — Implications for Policy | NEJM

Perspective from The New England Journal of Medicine — The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics — Implications for Policy

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp0903906

it's still a pandemic, so why write this if not to undermine it?
that paper also mentions waves as a characteristic, but, oh? CEBM doesn't think the experts should be so sure about predicting a second wave of Covid-19... https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/

Covid 19 - Epidemic ‘Waves’ - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Overview of the "epidemic waves" experienced in ten epidemics in history for which adequate documentation and data is available.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/

Following from that ZeroHedge tweet Ivor references the microchips a number of times, but clarifies that vaccines are safe. It's microchipping that he's against. Unless it's for cats and dogs.

On Apr. 11th, Ivor starts to question the models. He claims that there were no controls on the R0 in Europe and the US, but only a small % of people are infected... quite ridiculous since we just spoke of lockdowns with Ivor a moment ago.... and the Sweden model...

So, you, I *and* Ivor know that the above claims are bullshit. (That there were few controls)

Apr 12th. Ivor posts an article from an Anesthesiologist https://archive.is/GJU7J#selection-189.0-189.20

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1249304052216856576

with an error we'll find Ivor uses frequently going forward... referring to deaths.

the death curve may be flat, but that's people who have already passed...

what we are looking to flatten is the curve of people entering the hospital. because we want the health system to cope normally. Even in the article, the Anesthesiologist has a graph of a "flatten the curve" image... and it's not a death chart!

(i'm blocked now, but I was writing his book!)
Apr. 12th, Ivor posts this without a source (history dot com, though) and corrects someone's information about reinfection. "stick to facts" https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1249399094080086018... he later will distort that to, there was a second virus...

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1249399094080086018

Of course, a mutation in a virus is not an entirely new virus, and if it was a confirmed new virus, it would not have been the 1918 Spanish Flu, it would have been another Flu... but, I'm sure that's not lost on Ivor.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1288414806140227584

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1288414806140227584

That's without mentioning how difficult it has been to gather the 1918 virus to sequence it. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070702145610.htm

Scientists Describe How 1918 Influenza Virus Sample Was Exhumed In Alaska

In an article in the journal Antiviral Therapy, scientists at NIAID narrate the story of how scientists discovered samples of the 1918 strain in fixed autopsy tissues and in the body of a woman...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070702145610.htm

Everything's a BOOM!
Apr. 14th, cure everything with Ivor's diet tips. Eggs are the best. -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1250148863094161414
It's excellent when he's tripped up by his guest so he quickly says he will end the point and talks around it for a moment to still sound like an expert.

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1250148863094161414

Ivor posts this chart in response to an article about Belgium (who did pretty bad, but not horrible), but notice it's a Confirmed chart, so the count can only really go up, and stack it against any limited set of countries you can make it look good or bad https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1250400723965263874

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1250400723965263874

Here are their daily numbers for the same period. (left) and daily for an extra few weeks to see how the numbers start to decline. Typically we start to see this happen at least fourteen days after a measure is introduced.

So, there's a whole host of Ivor's claims prior to his either 1) change of mind or 2) showing his true colours.
either way, the predictions and his peers start to get a whole lot wilder.

24th Apr Ivor uploads Ep72 "A Data-Centric Perspective on the Coronavirus Challenge Facing us All" in which he seems to first compare Sweden and the UK, and starts to praise the Swedish model ->

the nuances of the differences he's now ignoring...

... where before, they [the differences between the UK and Sweden] were clear as day https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1243215033909350401 (ed is from England.)

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1243215033909350401

The next three videos are regarding diet and the effects on Covid-19, it's important to note that at this point Ivor is pushing the IHDA movie which *streams* for $3.50 - https://www.extratimemovie.com/ , and is the CPO of the IHDA until his contract expires sometime in July (~ep 89)

(confirmation that contract ends -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1287077968590897152)

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1287077968590897152

May 12. Ep76 - "If You Think You Understand the Current Viral Issue - You Don't!" ->
That CEBM guy Carl Heneghan is back in this podcast with Carnivore wunderkind Dr. Paul Saladino MD (definitely not a COI...)

In the podcast Ivor goes over one of Carl's ideas () that the "UK coronavirus outbreak peaked before 'unnecessary' lockdown" -> https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-coronavirus-outbreak-peaked-before-21895937
The lockdown started mid-March, and at the time of the article, the graph looked something like...

But who wouldn't trust that face?

May 17. Ep. 177 "Is Lockdown Science Based?" (Yes.) -> https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17684187/ (and current empiracle evidence and new studies.)
Ivor goes on Mark Dolan's talk show (who later would cut his face mask up on air and claim it is the only way to save lives...) to discuss lockdowns...

Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented by US cities during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic -...

These findings demonstrate a strong association between early, sustained, and layered application of nonpharmaceutical interventions and mitigating the consequences of the 1918-1919 influenza...

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17684187/

... in it, he again refers to "actual data", "not modelling", he says, bringing up again the Carl Heneghan article, someone we will likely see more of in the future (can't wait...)

Oh, and why not stream Ivor's movie for $3.99 to fix your health?

Here's the clip of Mark Dolan cutting up his face mask on air ->

May 19th Ep. 78. "Stanford Professor and Nobel Prize Winner Explains this Viral Lockdown" -> note how Ivor labels him without the correct information. It is a Nobel Prize in Chemistry, and he is a professor of Structural Biology.

The dissonance here could aid in people to belief Levitt actually has a clue what he's talking about.
Levitt released a pre-print around this time, "Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line", which had some negative feedback...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v1.full.pdf
... and despite being a pre-print, and some of Ivor's objections to those as direct evidence, Ivor will go on to refer to it consistently as if it were proven science. -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1256377339400814598

Even now, Ivor has not seemed to distance himself from this paper, or Levitt himself. Nor vice versa, as Levitt has not only been mistaken in many, many predictions (and been humble enough to admit it, but silly or dumb enough to try again), but now is really worried and...

sees "not gompertz" in some graphs -> https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1325954713183870976

https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/

imagine the experts sounding the alarm, going out of your field, ignoring them, getting everything wrong, still trying, then sounding the alarm yourself as if you have any clout?

https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1325954713183870976

Ep. 79 is on Vitamin D, taking a D supplement was, then, not a guaranteed net-positive, and I'm not certain the science is out on it now, but there was no reason to avoid taking a vitamin as an immune booster.

May 28th, Ep. 80 "The Latest DATA and EVIDENCE" Ivor brings out a new theory, the "Dry Tinder" theory.
Basically, using this chart, the pooled number of deaths, Ivor circles the entire year of 2019 (green) as a "soft flu season"...

... this means that we have an excess of people who weren't otherwise killed (let's say, by the flu) and are therefore susceptible. This would (theoretically explain Sweden's high death rate.

Alright, let's break that theory apart with some logic for a moment. That grey dotted line is baseline, the grey range is expected normal, the red dotted line is substantial increase, and euromomo counts 26 countries here.

so it's impossible from this data to say...

... how Sweden did in their flu season for 2019, not to mention 1) a flu season isn't an entire year, 2) this is entirely within baseline 3) at more than one point is there a substantial increase. 4) we can see a Z-Score for Sweden and fine that it's been pretty baseline.

With data, looking back, we can now see that Sweden are doing worse than neighboring countries *again*, so this theory holds no water with actual evidence.
See @zorinaq -> https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1327385605819437057, who, unfortunately, had more correct predictions -> https://twitter.com/search?q=%22%23PredictionWasCorrect%22%20(from%3Azorinaq)&src=typed_query

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1327385605819437057

than anyone would like, as opposed to Michael Levitt ( https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/), or Ivor Cummins ( https://twitter.com/jocami_ca/status/1307572931766165504), who, both, unfortunately, did not have more correct predictions.

Let's dredge on, slowly.

May 30th. "Lockdown Evidence - Has Enough Data Been Analysed to Answer the Question?" and uses Jenga blocks to show that Lockdowns may be ineffective. Meanwhile, lockdowns worldwide are proving to be effective. NZ LD (~black), Ivor's video (red)

Even in Ireland, at that time, the lockdown was working.

Now, could Ivor have been asking would mere Social Distancing measures be just as effective?

I honestly don't know.
Here's how Sweden looks. Pretty steady.

Of course there will be differences in lockdown with peoples willingness, the messaging, and what your plan is for *after* determines success, as people are a massive variable

so if Ivor's message is that Lockdowns won't work due to people being a variable, we already have examples of what will work instead (Taiwan), Lockdowns getting us there as we get a robust testing system ready (NZ), and what a failure will lead to (US) -> https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1328800577560702985

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1328800577560702985

and calling measures that work, and people who promote science "anti-scientific", while not even denying that an event like this can have a negative outcome is definitely not going to prevent a second lockdown.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1325102623314284550

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1325102623314284550

Jun 24th Ivor posts a video about the Viral Seasonal Dynamics - "Very Interesting!" in which he uses a book about *transmission* (viral spread) as proof and then does a "little trick" and "superimposes" a *death* chart in the wrong months to see a match.

this is where you clap?

The WHO, in July, says COVID-19 (pandemic) is 'one big wave' -> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-idUSKCN24T16U this is based on, you know, the evidence, not based on a "little trick", limited data, and superimposing lines (onto the wrong graph)

WHO says COVID-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal

A World Health Organization official on Tuesday described the COVID-19 pandemic as "one big wave" and warned against complacency in the northern hemisphere summer since the infection does not share...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-idUSKCN24T16U

My mistake - never linked the above video (as I had been) -

Jun. 30th, Ep85 "Viral Realities Revealed", a video with a retired pathology professor Dr. John Lee who, now, writes for the Spectator (another mostly right-wing outlet, though oft factual, a lot of opinion pieces) https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-spectator-uk/

The Spectator (UK) - Media Bias/Fact Check

RIGHT-CENTER BIAS These media sources are slightly to moderately conservative in bias. They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an...

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-spectator-uk/

Ivor shows frustruation in this video at the "upside-downness", even the masks, he says "we always looked at the other side of the world with all the masks and thought 'well, pollution, yeah, but, [...] the science on flu - very dodgy'"

The "we", "always", and "dodgy" here are suspect as we have plain evidence of Ivor praising masks and issue Masks4All hashtags left, right and centre.
see back in this thread for examples -> https://twitter.com/beandiagram/status/1328676747177582593 and one screenshot attached:

https://twitter.com/beandiagram/status/1328676747177582593

This is without mentioning Ivor *still* (now, and then) has the Taiwan Success Story video up on his channel, a country who make heavy use of masking...

Jul. 1st, "Two Minutes to Understand Spin Vs Actual Data, in this Viral Issue" - - a type of video Ivor now likes to make for Twitter, fits the 2:20 mark, flashy, and tries to affirm that the experts are wrong, and we don't need to change much to live.

So, Ivor starts off by either purposfully misquoting or simply misunderstanding Luke O'Neill when he says that without mitigation efforts projections show that every family would have had a death in Ireland.

He then quotes this section of the Science News show (~06:00) -> https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/science-with-luke-o-39-neill/page/6 (almost) directly, but leaves out the "caveats", and that the numbers will "get better" as "time goes on",

What *then* happens is that Ivor calculates a PFR to compare, not only Sweden (~10m people), to Ireland (~4.9m), but to Europe also??? (~747m), he then adds these extra deaths to Irelands PFR to show that the model is way out as Sweden, I guess, did no lockdown and fared better?

Note he didn't add the extra deaths to Europes numbers, but he's not exactly an expert here... The other thing is that a model would typically have several scenarios... such as this (attached), and as explained in the podcast, our healthcare system is not as good as Sweden's...

... we would not be able to cope with the excess at all.

Ep87 is on "The Cholestorol Question"
then we have, on Jul. 5th, "Viral Issue Critical Update Some of the Science Logic and Data Explained", which is a collection of a batch of Twitter short videos.

Note this video we're looking at now claims "no controversial sources", "no fringe material here".
Let's see what Ivor's twitter friends have to show. (in the video...)

So, all that "lockdown (country)" vs. "No lockdown Sweden"? Didn't happen. Sweden locked down. and it's the only country where it could possibly have had an effect, because the deaths were already so high...
Yeah, I'm having a hard time following along, too.

So, this is the data Ivor presents.
This is a collection of Z-Scores. ( https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score/), not of respiratory/covid deaths. (psst. other death's still exist, sorry.) (psst. that's actually why we need to prevent our HC system from being overrun)

Aside from that fact it shows a downward slope in the baseline of at least two of the neighboring Nordics, while Sweden gone way above excess.
Bizarre interpretations.

There are further comparitive charts that happen to leave out nuances, which actually are oft from legitimate sources, but with interpretations from, what I would say, definitely fringe sources, funny stuff here indeed.

Further: here's a thread from Gummi about how lockdowns "kill grandma", in which Gummi claims that *the grandon* mowing grandma's lawn will be careful, however, I guess grandma won't be? it's a mind-bending read.
-> https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1307050397400530945

https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1307050397400530945

Jul. 11th, "Why are Some Countries Harder Hit? Interesting Data and Insights!"
Ivor goes over a host of countries 52 week-trailing mortality average, and notes of countries that are soft-hit last year and see a spike with covid.

Note: a spike from Covid can be expected unless effective measures are in place,
Note2: most countries implemented a lockdown.
Note3: lockdown or not was not compared, graphs were just looked at for trends.
here are more correlations for Ivor to look over: (next)

https://tylervigen.com/old-version.html

Jul. 16, "Viral Impacts Explained - The PANDA Pandemic Data & Analytics Group"

In this interview, Nick Hudson and Peter Castleden, both South African based, money-focused (by profession) individuals, discuss the pandemic with Ivor

When asked if there was one thing Castledon would show the layperson , it is this graph (attached), which shows a downward slope (though don't mention this to Ivor -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1327959337982173188)

Of course, you don't want a lockdown to last forever, you don't want economic damage (though no lockdown can also affect economy -> https://twitter.com/thereal_truther/status/1322235268582178821 ( @thereal_truther provides excellent analysis with references and sources) but...

https://twitter.com/thereal_truther/status/1322235268582178821

that is a downward slope. it also ignores so many factors including health systems, population health, population density, *when* the country entered lockdown, how long they did it for... it's also not explained. It's laughed at and explained as like someone "splashed paint".

Also note, you can reference Twitter accounts like Ivor and Gummi and @thereal_truther and @zorinaq etc all you want, but when Ivor and Gummi make claims while hiding sources or how they came to those conclusions, Mr. Truther and Marc show their work, and all four...

... sources of information can be verified. That's important.

It's also important to, if you use a source that is incorrect, that either you correct it, they correct it, or preferably, they both do.

So, who else is in PANDA? Well... Engineers, Statisticians, Medical Doctors, econonomists... no virologists, epidemiologists?? odd. https://pandata.org/team/

The Team - PANDA

Pandemics ~ Data & Analysis (PANDA) is a multidisciplinary initiative seeking to inform policy. PANDA’s technical team brings to bear knowledge from the fields of actuarial mathematics, economics and...

https://pandata.org/team/

But! Don't fret, PANDA has Stacey Rudin, one of AIER's finest (AIER is a libertarian economic thinktank based out of Great Barrington).
Stacey is one of those people who compare wearing a face-mask to Nazi Germany, and says things like this -> https://twitter.com/stacey_rudin/status/1327039345208029185

https://twitter.com/stacey_rudin/status/1327039345208029185

Which, in November? Stacey, no. (Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

They also have Clare Craig. Who pulls out stops like this -> https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1329074398553227270
You know, the most interesting work I've ever done is the stuff I've never written too. Probably never will. Why don't more people talk about it?

https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1329074398553227270

also this gem -> https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1326060732627214336 whic leads to this conclusion -> https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1326079790236004359

which is just bonkers.
even if it was possible that they were all false +ve, more worrying would be false -ve considering *any* prevalence and the r0 for covid...

https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1326060732627214336

it also doesn't explain a rapid rise in admission to hospital with this "false" diagnosis, Clare... and if it is a respiratory issue, and falsely diagnosed, did Influenza just set increasingly worse this year? Common Cold? Or did Covid-20 just release?

All these people Ivor seems to align with lean-right or go to far-right. That's fine. Facts and opinions matter. Dodgy graphs and clouded judgement ruin a source. This is why we have reputable sources, and then... sources (who may or may not post a factual piece at a time)

Jul. 25 Ep. 90 "A Short Message to my Network and Supporters!"

Ivor's contract is up ( https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1287077968590897152), and as you know, he's not exactly an Engineer... so, money? Patreon. It also helps that his covid videos are getting him views and subscribers (attatched; cut to time).

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1287077968590897152

Two lies/falsehoods in this video, 1) that he *is* a Biochemical Engineer and problem solving specialist in the corporate sphere. (no evidence, has been working on a podcast) 2) that he will be "circling back" to talking about nutrition soon, not covid ->

For anyone of the "follow the money" mindset, here's Ivor's current COI. He is paid, directly, by viewers, who are against masks, lockdowns, restrictions, to speak to them directly, who are under no obligation to continue if he changes the course with any real evidence.

Jul. 28th, "Emeritus Professor of Immunology...Reveals Crucial Viral Immunity Reality"
Ivor brings on Beda Stadler, who opens with "I'm out of research since 2014", so, the "reality" here is quite... not.

This is what Ivor seems to do, he brings on a guest, either a non-expert who has some opinions, or someone in a relevant field who can verify some of what Ivor thinks.
Here, Stadler is bringing forth the idea of cross-reactive antibodies, and Ivor loves it, so it's fact.

However, it's an idea, even now, and it's possible to have an overreaction to an infection -> https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/cytokine-storm
but, to Ivor, this is reality, and it's what he's selling you. Ivor will later praise Stadler as a "Vaccine Pope" due to this idea. https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1315374366188855296

Jul 30th, unless I missed it in a video, this is where casedemic comes from -> https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1288740922021289984
Casedemic, to Ivor, seems to be what an epidemic is to anyone who knows what an epidemic is. (reading: https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson1/section11.html)

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1288740922021289984

to Ivor, covid-19 is now *ENDEMIC* meaning that we are now seeing what numbers would be like without intervention... while we are heavily intervening (in most cases)... if endemic is what we see described in the US: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1328800577560702985 & https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1327481868200124416 ...

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1328800577560702985

... then let's at least continue to do *something*

Aug 8, an Anthropologist talks the "real" human diet.
Aug 12th, "Crucial Viewing - to truly understand our current Viral Issue # Casedemic"

Ivor uses a lot of repeating graphs and sayings, like this graph where we can see Ivor highlights Coronaviruses, and selects the Winters, so we can see how seasonal they are. But this paper is old, those are common cold causing coronaviruses, and sars-cov-2 struck late-Spring

He mainly continues on to call the epidemic any ICU strain and high death toll, but this would be a disastrous effect of an epidemic.

Aug. 15 Ep93 "Second Wave" - Or Not?
Ivor talks to an ICU doctor about an approaching second wave, who isn't seeing one either (NOTE: prevalence at this time was low, age of cases was young) important note from this interview is Ivor mentions broken ankle

next three videos are clickbait-riddled grabs from news sources around the world with people questioning restrictions.

Aug 25 - this is War!
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1298276225018994688
Ivor publishes a letter he has been working on with several people "of note" (my quotations), https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1298287607709863936
->
https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Coronavirus-Mismanagement-Letter-Draft-Unsigned.pdf

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1298276225018994688

This document was shared around and got to the attention of some higher ups in the *Irish Government* - a thread to follow by @andrewflood here -> https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1298648756200636416
where Sherlock is asking about falling off rooftops being a respiratory death
https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1310928652457177088

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1298648756200636416

... we can only noticed how Michael Levitt is still involved, granted, he has made less incorrect predictions at the time (early August), but is still saying things such as ah, but if get really sick for a bit but don't die, surely they're fine? -> https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/08/02/qa-michael-levitt-on-why-there-shouldnt-be-a-lockdown-how-hes-been-tracking-coronavirus/

Q&A: Michael Levitt on why there shouldn’t be a lockdown, how he’s been tracking coronavirus | The...

Michael Levitt is a Nobel prize-winning structural biology professor at Stanford who has been tracking the coronavirus consistently for the past six months.

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/08/02/qa-michael-levitt-on-why-there-shouldnt-be-a-lockdown-how-hes-been-tracking-coronavirus/

... however it was starting to be discovered at least a month earlier (July) that recovery can take a *very* long time.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

(I will go over the letter to Government this afternoon).

Symptom Duration and Risk Factors for Delayed Return to Usual...

Prolonged symptom duration and disability are common in adults hospitalized with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Characterizing return to baseline health among outpatients with milder...

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

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