The comments made by the PM last night regarding devolution shld act as a wake-up call to anyone who thinks that the Union is safe under his stewardship.
Irrespective of whether the PM thinks that devolution was a disaster, or great, or a great disaster, it is the fact that he made these comments in a forum where they were so clearly going to be leaked that is of serious concern.
Relations between Westminster and Edinburgh are more sensitive now than they have ever been during my lifetime (and I include the battles over the poll tax in that).
The strain on the Union is real and serious, and managing this requires sensitivity and the type of deft political touch that clearly was not on display last night.
This isn't the first time that we’ve heard loose talk from the PM, & I suspect it won't be the last.
As we head towards Scottish elections, with the SNP riding high in the polls, it seems highly likely that there will be more political missteps from the PM that will further fuel the forces that are currently pulling the country apart.
The options available to the PM to prevent Sco winning its independence before the decade is out are already limited.
He cld dig in his heals, ignore the mandate the SNP seems likely win next yr, & deny Sco a second indy ref. From a legal perspective, he has every right to do this, but the result will simply be to store up bigger problems for later.
His other option is to make a persuasive case to Scottish voters that it is in their interests to remain in the Union.
The problem is, if the PM is the messenger, few in Sco will want to hear the message. While no-one can deny that the PM is good at is campaigning, he is not good at is campaigning in Sco. Unlike voters in Eng, those in Sco appear immune to the PMs charms. His brand there is toxic
So where does that leave us? In a really tricky spot. If the Union is to be saved, govt. needs to quickly and radically change its approach, & consider how reconstitute the country as a genuine partnership between four nations.
Unfortunately, there isn't much time to do all this and the SNP know that forcing the pace works in their favour.
In addition, this govt’s tendency to only think one step ahead and constantly be in essay crisis mode, doesn’t fill one with confidence that they can get ahead of things, but if they value the Union, they need to, and fast.
A good place to start would be to seriously rethink elements of the Internal Market Bill that have caused the most disquiet in the devolved admins, specifically those related to mutual recognition and non-discrimination.
In proposing to enshrine in law these principles, Edinburgh & Cardiff, in particular, have accused govt. of undermining their power. Govt. must address this and...
...as important as what govt. does, is how it does it. Critically, it must make changes to these elements of the Bill in consultation with the devolved admins. They must be given ownership.
This shld also be part of a concerted effort to change the culture in Westminster and Whitehall when it comes to devolution.
At the heart of the tensions between govt. & the devolved admins is a failure to recognize that devolution doesn’t just mean giving power to Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, it also means sharing power in London.
This govt. has a choice. It can continue to impose its decisions on the devolved admins and create conflict (as we are seeing now), or it can bring the devolved govts. into the tent & give them some ownership of national decisions, even where these relate to reserved matters.
To put it another way, govt needs to stop treating the devolved govts. as the enemy & start treating them as partners in the effective running of the UK. This will require govt to sit down with its political opponents, but this is necessary to move from a them vs us mentality.
The PM can lead from the front & bring the leaders of all four govts. together on a regular basis. He can also demand that his Cabinet speak regularly to their opposites in the devolved admins...
...and new administrative structures cld be put in place that support greater cooperation between London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast. Whitehall’s cooperation with the devolved admins needs to be part of the DNA of the civil service.
These are simple measures to begin with, that can be quickly implemented, and would go a long way toward changing the tone of relations between the four nations. But on their own, they will not save the Union.
That will require a more fundamental constitutional rethink. Here, the PM could take the opportunity to make real the promise to take back control.
If this slogan is to be given any substance, it should be through a democratic revival that seeks to decentralize & bring decision making as close as possibly to the people.
However, fundamental constitutional change cannot be conceived of and implemented overnight. If the Union is to be saved by reconstituting the relationship between the four nations, we need time to discuss, design and test solutions.
This is a huge task. Grappling with it will require enormous amounts of preparation, organization, & good will, as well as clear & effective leadership to channel collective efforts towards a shared goal of not just saving the Union but creating a greater union for all.
Unfortunately, time is not on our side, & yesterday’s events only serve to further confirm that the leadership we need is not the leadership that we have got.
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