Donald Trump is set to announce a massive drawdown of US troops from #Afghanistan.

In Washington, there is a prevailing view that #Russia will benefit from a smaller US presence in Afghanistan.

Is that true?

Read this thread to find out my thoughts

[THREAD]

Russian officials frequently condemn US conduct in Afghanistan, and even accuse the US of supporting ISIS.

But Vladimir Putin recently stated that the US military presence could be beneficial.

From my research, the Kremlin's view is much closer to Putin's statement.

Russia is embracing military restraint in Eurasia

Its cautious reactions to the crises in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan, and its unwillingness to back #Armenia in Karabakh shows this

Russia does not want the extra security responsibilities that would follow a US exit from #Afghanistan

#Russia's common ground with #China and #Pakistan in Afghanistan is at least partially premised ion opposing the US military presence.

If the US leaves, Russia would not welcome a larger Chinese presence in Central Asia or Pakistani destabilization.

Russia likes hosting peace talks on Afghanistan.

But their main success is PR, they bolster Russia's soft power and turn Afghan political figures against the US.

Russia's actual record of diplomatic success in #Afghanistan is very poor and this will be exposed with a US exit.

If the US leaves Afghanistan, the basis of Russia's soft power and international partnerships there will collapse

Russia will also have to assume more security burdens in Central Asia right when it is trying to expand its global influence.

In short, a bad outcome for #Russia