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Keep the "Hosptializations from" vs. "Hospitalizations with" COVID data in mind when you see this headline circulating Twitter tomorrow: (Thread)
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IA and ND are two states that delineate between hospitalizations "with" & "from" COVID.
If, like most states, they did not differentiate, each state's COVID hospitalizations would be overstated by 38% and 20%, respectively.
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https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/hospitalization-analysis https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases
If, like most states, they did not differentiate, each state's COVID hospitalizations would be overstated by 38% and 20%, respectively.
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https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/hospitalization-analysis https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases
Overstatements matter b/c hospitalization data is used in two ways:
1. as a measure of disease severity i.e. "the proportion sick enough with C19 to require hospital care"
2. to measure the threat of overwhelming hospitals.
Overstatements inflate the perception of both...
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1. as a measure of disease severity i.e. "the proportion sick enough with C19 to require hospital care"
2. to measure the threat of overwhelming hospitals.
Overstatements inflate the perception of both...
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A common belief is that overreacting is harmless, and even in line with the precautionary principle.
However, overreacting is not, in fact, harmless and there can be immediately counterproductive consequences...
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However, overreacting is not, in fact, harmless and there can be immediately counterproductive consequences...
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For example, the perception of impending crisis can drive communities to close in-person schools--as a "precaution"--despite evidence that schools aren't sites of significant transmission.
However, closing schools actually results in reduced HC capacity & fewer staffed beds
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However, closing schools actually results in reduced HC capacity & fewer staffed beds
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In fact, that potentiality was the focus of summer modeling studies--exploring the impact of closing schools on C19 outcomes, given resultant healthcare workforce depletion.
This problem is gaining attention right now...
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https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588.full https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266720300827
This problem is gaining attention right now...
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https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588.full https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266720300827
Today, Judy Rich, the CEO of a hospital system in Tucson, AZ implored local school superintendents to offer in-person school options due to a nursing and med tech shortage caused by parents dropping out of the healthcare workforce...
7/9 https://knst.iheart.com/featured/garret-lewis/content/2020-11-16-tmc-ceo-urges-superintendents-to-expand-in-person-learning-options/
7/9 https://knst.iheart.com/featured/garret-lewis/content/2020-11-16-tmc-ceo-urges-superintendents-to-expand-in-person-learning-options/
Fewer healthcare providers = fewer staffed beds = decrease in capacity to care for COVID & non-COVID patients.
And that's just one of many examples of why it's critical that the data disseminated to the public be accurate, contextual, & transparent.
There are many more.
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And that's just one of many examples of why it's critical that the data disseminated to the public be accurate, contextual, & transparent.
There are many more.
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Our responses must be well-reasoned & proportional & that cannot happen without accurate data to make those decisions.
Knowing how many are in the hospital for COVID (vs. with COVID) is crucial in developing responses that actually mitigate harms, not exacerbate them.
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Knowing how many are in the hospital for COVID (vs. with COVID) is crucial in developing responses that actually mitigate harms, not exacerbate them.
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