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the high stakes tit-for-tat of strategic leaks over the past few weeks led by the Wolves, Warriors, and Hornets has been fascinating. add in the player agents and the other teams in the draft, and this could get messy.

Folks, it's time for some Game Theory (1/76)

First, let me preface this by saying this is not a joke tweet. i have been pondering this D100 for a while and i can't make heads nor tails of it.

Buckle Up. (2/76)

let's start at the top with the Wolves. with no clear #1 in the draft, their clear interest is to keep other teams guessing to drive up trade value of the pick.

the problem is that no one really believes they'd pick Wiseman, who has also not complied with their ruse (3/76)

in order to retain the primacy of their leverage, they then need to do two things:

1. sow disinformation about whether they will pick Ball or Edwards, and

2. make sure the Hornets think that the Warriors are most interested in Wiseman

MN has done a pretty good job at #1 over the past 2 weeks. the press uniformly had Edwards there up until Ball's private meeting then private workout.

they followed that up with a third private interview this last weekend who presumably only they and Ball's camp knew (5/76)

this screams internal leak to me. now, after the mocks switching to Ball, the ESPN guys suddenly - uniformly - switch back to Edwards on Monday morning? FOH.

(6/76)

as one other unidentified GM said earlier this year, "Anything you say to Gerrson, you know it’s going to end up on ESPN immediately. And they just don’t tell you the truth. Everything is agenda-driven. Very agenda-driven"

(7/76)

now, in order for this to work, the Warriors have to be rumored to pick Wiseman (#2 above).

the Warriors roster situation works in the Wolves' favor, who I believe mostly want to extract value from CHA (PJ Washington and/or 2021 pick). and the Warriors have played along (8/76)

let's switch to the Warriors POV now. they also would rather trade their pick for a star, so they have also been sowing as much disinfo as possible, throwing everything that will stick out there (9/76) https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1320879907472195584?s=20

(as a hilarious aside, despite being two teams with very different trajectories, both the Warriors and Wolves want to win in 2021, and imo both actually covet Haliburton. maybe I'll come back to that around 45 or so) (10/76)

so i haven't been following the Warriors disinfo so much. imo their clear interest is just to cash in the best asset, make him look good in their system, and trade him at the deadline or next summer.

this is in part because the stars they want "aren't available" rn (11/76)

the trade market for Ball or Edwards would presumably be higher than that of Wiseman. but who of the two do the Warriors prefer?

for this reason, the Warriors also might have an interest in CHA jumping them (if they don't actually like Wiseman). (12/76)

if the Warriors do not have a preference between Ball and Edwards, then they're in the same boat as the Wolves: try to extract an asset from Charlotte (again, probably Washington) and move down. in that case, it benefits them to leak Wiseman interest (13/76)

now Charlotte is in sort of a bind, because they have a big hole at center and not one but two point guards.

they're also run by Michael Jordan (14/76)

given MJ, one would think Charlotte would have leaked their interest in Obi Toppin by now. (15/76)

sorry, that one wasn't game theory (16/76)

anyway, CHA have smartly played it tight. the Wiseman interest seems strong, and you basically know they want a center.

but they've also floated that they would be fine picking Okongwu. that's an attempt to reign in some of that leverage they're losing from MN/GSW (17/76)

are Charlotte serious, or not? this has to be killing both MN and GSW, because if they internally game theory what each of the other teams want, they'll end up in the same dark place as me - which is how we got here with all the leaks (18/76)

now let's open up the Universe a bit: that's why it was sneaky important that the Pistons were at the second private LaMelo workout with Charlotte and GSW.

the Wolves need more leverage than they can get from just GSW/CHA. (19/76)

now, this could be real or it could be just coincidence that LaMelo has been working out in Detroit and they were invited by his agent. but still, it's kinda wack that they got a workout but none of the 4-6 teams did, right? (20/76)

either way, it seems like the Pistons interest in Patrick Williams is pretty serious.

Likewise, the Wolves working out Okoro, and interviewing Haliburton (who they "covet") and reportedly trying to trade up to #6 for one of these three guys feels Very Strange (21/76)

I have one more thing to say about the Wolves and Ball before moving on.

if they keep the pick and draft Edwards, it feels kind of icky leaking all this stuff pumping Ball at #1. if all that was disinfo for leverage that didn't work out, it kinda sucks for him/agent (22/76)

now back to pick #7: this is where i think this draft has the chance to get really hilarious/dicey (23/76)

it might be true that the Pistons are fine picking Williams, but they have also been rumored to really like Haliburton. good character guy, point guard who can shoot, great smile. what's not to like? (24/76)

this is why Atlanta's desire to move the #6 for some kind of help is simultaneously sooooo juicy and potentially sooooo disruptive to the Wolves and Warriors desire to move back. (25/76)

granted, the Bulls could fuck everything up by picking Haliburton at #4 (and i'll have to look into them a bit more tomorrow). but if the Wolves trade back to #7 with the idea that they will be picking him and Atlanta trades the pick?

oh no. egg on your face again (26/76)

especially if #6 is moved in some kind of Jrue-driven mega deal involving Atlanta, New Orleans, San Antonio, Orlando(?!) and...Golden State. (27/76)

ideally you wouldn't move up or back without having a backup player in mind, but it bit the wolves bad last year (reportedly) wrt Garland. it's not as much of a risk at #3, but could be at #7.

(28/76)

i'm seeing that there's new information I need to plug into the patented cybernetic poophatometer, so i'm going to cap it here for tonight and pick it up bright and early tomorrow (29/76).

all right, i've got about an hour to add some thoughts here.

Strap in. (30/76)

so I left off with a Q about the Bulls and Cavs. The latter will, barring someone dropping, be picking Obi Toppin. It's just too perfect. So I'm not going to spend much time there.

The Bulls, however...who knows?
(31/76)

I'm sure the Bulls would love it if one of the Big 3 drops, but that doesn't seem likely. Avdija has been mocked there a lot but honestly he seems likely to drop. KOC speculates that letting Dunn/Shaq go suggests they have fixated on a playmaker.
(32/76)

it's interesting to contrast the Bulls approach with that of the Wolves/Warriors. The go-to talking point among draftniks has been that "the draft really starts with #4." one would think that would give the Bulls the opportunity to spam disinfo for the long tier 2

(33/76)

on the off chance that one of Ball/Edwards/Wiseman drops, the Bulls could suddenly be fielding many offers. or they could just make the pick. the team has also been rumored to desire a trade up, or perhaps down (again, for Williams or Haliburton)

my best guess is that the Bulls have settled on Haliburton and simply don't want to deal with any trade risks. that'd be the safe, first year GM move.

But there's also the splashy first year GM move: landing LaMelo Ball
(35/76)

per 21ff above, we've already deduced that if they don't prefer the trade value route that GSW likely wants Haliburton. landing Wendell Carter Jr. in a trade back could be a way of splitting the baby (36/76).

the Bulls oppo has suggested they're more interested in moving WCJ than Markkanen, which seems backwards to me. but if this is true, we're back to the incredible game of chicken between MN and GSW.

(37/76)

Because, of course, the Bulls would probably be more interested in Ball than Wiseman/Edwards, and WCJ would not be a viable trade chip for the Wolves.

I can't really see a viable Wolves/Bulls trade, but if they are interested in Ball it still helps drive price of #1 up
(38/76)

Now, let's game up some of the weirder scenarios for the Bulls. One is that Ball falls to 4 and they're happy (see The Ringer, consistently low on Ball). I simply don't see this happening due to Pistons trade desires and Wolves/Warriors valuing assets over fit. (39/76)

the more interesting one is if Edwards falls. you probably can't play Edwards and LaVine together, which to be clear shouldn't stop a good FO from drafting him. but are the new Bulls a good FO? I'm not convinced. I think they're zeroed in on Haliburton (or maybe Avdija) (40/76)

it would be just like the Cavs to pick Toppin over Edwards (41/76)

Atlanta would probably scoop up Edwards at #6, then we've got chalk from there on out: Williams, Hayes, Avdija/Vassell/Okoru. still: lots of chaos as Orlando, Boston, and OKC try to move up (42/76)

I suppose it's worth talking about OKC a bit as the other form of external leverage for the Warriors and Wolves. there's no mystery that they're interested in moving up for Ball specifically (43/76)

both MN and GSW would be heavily interested in SGA, though I don't see OKC putting him on the table. annoyingly for OKC, neither team is really interested in future firsts. Oubre isn't enough to move up to 1 or 2. So I don't see OKC as providing any leverage
(44/76)

the only exception is if there's a three team deal that could bring a helpful player from a bottom feeder to the Wolves/Warriors. Jrue was my idea but that's out the door now [as an aside, check my goddamn timestamps you reply guys] (45/76)

Gordon isn't enough. LaVine, Graham, any of the Hawks or Pistons players = not enough.

one dark horse? the Spurs (46/76)

the Aldridge to Warriors deal that's been circulating is a fun one. But what about this?

Derrick White and #11 to MN
#1 to OKC
like 3 or 4 future firsts to SA
(47/76)

White would also be an intriguing fit in GS. I'm just not sure the Spurs are ready to retool a bit for draft picks or not.

Ok, gotta break for a bit - back in a few hrs to game out some Detroit trades (48/76)

KC Johnson (Chicago beat) says "The buzz surrounding the Bulls becoming increasingly focused on Patrick Williams is intensifying by the day."

interesting to see this draft position become normalized in part because Williams is also...from Charlotte (49/76)

all right folks, I'm back from picking up a rain barrel and native plant so let's wrap this thread up! (50/76)

so, here are a few of my scenarios and predictions for the top 7 picks. first we'll go chalk no trades

ball
edwards
wiseman
williams
toppin
haliburton
okoro
(51/76)

detroit has the most incentive to avoid the chalk scenario. because chalk has wiseman to charlotte, they only have incentive to trade with MN/GSW if they are absolutely convinced that the warriors are in on Wiseman. I don't know if that's the case or not. (52/76)

the next scenario i call "the staredown":

ball
wiseman
okongwu
edwards
toppin
haliburton
williams
(53/76)

in The Staredown, Charlotte's desire for a big is real, but not enough to trade up for wiseman. picking Okongwu pushes everything down a bit (though i wonder if Chicago would still pick williams?) (54/76)

One more Ball scenario: "the swap"

ball
wiseman (Cha trade)
edwards (gsw trade)
williams
toppin
haliburton
okoro
(55/76)

in this scenario, Charlotte's eyes for Wiseman are real and it ultimately moves up with GSW for less than the Wolves demand (washington). I'm guessing it's just a protected future pick.

(56/76)

now we have "The Edwards"

edwards
ball
wiseman
williams
toppin
haliburton
okoro
(57/76)

though this is not the chalk scenario, no team past the wolves seems to be enamored with edwards. that means it doesn't fuck up anyone's plans really.
(58/76)

now, let's try this one: "the Haliburton"

ball
wiseman (cha)
haliburton (gsw)
edwards
toppin
okoro
williams
(59/76)

there's also a var 2 with the Wolves:

wiseman (cha)
ball
haliburton (min)
edwards
toppin
okoro
williams
(60/76)

both MN and GSW covet Haliburton, but are scared to pull the trigger at 1 or 2. picking up a future pick or Washington to move back allows them to split the baby, as neither is actually interested in Edwards here. the Bulls panic and pick him (61/76)

finally, i'd be remiss if i didn't do "a chaos"

ball
haliburton
okongwu
williams
toppin
edwards
williams
(62/76)

ok, so what can we learn from this exercise? what was the point of writing out seventy tweets of this bullshit? (63/76)

well, mostly the point was me distracting myself from my sore throat and the potential implication that i might have covid (64/76)

a hilarious side effect has been getting a lot of followers? what is wrong with you people. (i'm sure i lost a lot as well). also i got to Tweet like Eric Garland (65/76)

mostly, however, i wanted to game out some scenarios like NBA teams might. iterating the draft and thinking about each other team's interests gives one a clearer picture of the probable range of players available at any given draft spot (66/76)

to me, there are a few clear takeaways.

first of all, it's in the interest of both the Warriors and Wolves to sow as much disinfo as possible. i think it's fair to say they've succeeded. (67/76)

second of all, despite all that disinfo (especially wrt Wiseman), the biggest question mark in the draft is whether the Wolves or Warriors end up with Ball. (68/76)

third, Haliburton is the biggest question mark for me. i could see him ending up on like seven different teams. if the interest from him is serious, there will be a lot of maneuvering and positioning from different teams - perhaps all the way up to 3. (69/76)

i don't expect Avdija or Hayes to go in the top 7. Okoro only occasionally. if my hunch is correct, then there will be further reverberations in the 8-12 range.

if i'm wrong, oh well, what the fuck do i know? (70/76).

there are distinct opportunities for Edwards or even Wiseman to slide, but I don't see Ball making it past 4. still, however you feel about the top of the draft, I think there's more openness for the top 3 to shake up than some mock drafts are predicting (71/76)

7th (or whatever), Detroit is absolutely boned. they wanted Haliburton, then they wanted Williams, and I see both going in front of them. will they settle for Avdija or Okoro, or put a 2021 first on the table (their only meaningful asset) to move up? (72/76)

finally, i'll end with how my thinking has changed on the matter:

it's a lot harder to successively write 76 tweets than to just write a 2000 word essay (73/76)

that said, I learned a lot about myself. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, (74/76)

Truly, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way. (75/76)

thanks for making the journey with me.

just draft LaMelo Ball.

FIN.

(76/76)