Being ambitious doesn’t mean we can’t be smart. The notion of #COVIDzero isn’t so much about following any other country’s model (Melbourne’s is only one way). To get to zero, we’ll have to decrease interpersonal contacts significantly, esp in areas of high transmission. (1/)

But what that looks like specifically *can* and *should* take into account local context and what we’ve learned in Canada. Through a combination of smart policy, science, innovation, funding, and some sacrifice, we can get Rt under 1. (2/)

We haven’t made those policy decisions yet, and so across the country, with the exception of Atlantic Canada, our healthcare systems are in anything from “strain” to “crisis” mode, and without action, we’ll see many further deaths, severe illness, and economic hardship. (3/)

COVID-related economic hardship is due to the virus itself. Independent of policy, individuals decrease spending in high-COVID areas. So policy to curb viral spread is not only necessary to save lives, but also to protect the economy. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27988  (4/)

Let’s say, however, that policy changes. Now. Immediately. In all the right ways. We get Rt down to, say, 0.8 or so. Healthcare demands will peak in a couple of weeks to a month. It’ll still be bad. But we can prevent the worst possible health and economic effects. (5/)

The question then is, after we do that, how long should we keep it under 1? If we keep it under 1 long enough, we will get to zero. Aiming for something other than #COVIDzero means accepting the risk of further waves. (6/)

Another wave after the holiday season, or Valentine’s Day? More cycles of closures and reopening. What business can withstand that? I’m not sure mental health outcomes are better with this cycling approach either (though I can’t say for sure). (7/)

Aiming for #COVIDzero gives us a common goal. The approach should be smart, innovative, and thoughtful. Zero doesn’t change, and we all understand what it means. That clarity is essential to getting through this together. (8/)

What we don’t want to do is leave anyone behind. We need to think of the implications for all people. Risks to specific groups (businesses, those who are vulnerably housed, BIPOC, those with chronic illness or disabilities, and others) need to be enumerated and mitigated. (9/)

We can learn from our own & and other countries’ mistakes here; no one must be left behind. This winter will be difficult regardless of what we do. By acting swiftly, collectively, and with a firm commitment to #COVIDzero, we can enter 2021 with unity, joy, & hope. (10/10)