Hi friends! Today's news about the NIH-Moderna #COVID19 #vaccine is astonishingly good. I've never seen my colleagues - weathered, skeptical professor types - so giddy and delighted and surprised. Here's a thread about what it means (and doesn't): 1/n

There are caveats and I will get to them (wear a mask!), but for a moment let's look at the amazing numbers they reported: there were 95 cases of COVID-19 so far and *90* of those cases were in the group that got the fake (placebo) group. Only 5 cases were in the vaccine ... 2/14

group. The vaccine also seemed to protect against severe disease. There were 11 cases of severe COVID-19 in the placebo group and 0 cases in the vaccine group. Wow!
So now, other things to know: ... 3/14

- The Moderna vaccine is much easier to ship and store than Pfizer's. They announced today that the vaccine can be stored for a month in the refrigerator, and a regular freezer for 6 months. (No super-cold freezer required.) ... 4/14

- This study was a partnership with the NIH who ran it through their HIV clinical trial network. That means lots of fantastic community-focused investigators recruited volunteers. And it shows in the numbers. This was a very diverse study, lots of different races/ethnicities.5/14

All of us taxpayers should feel really proud of what our NIH accomplished. (And thanks to the volunteers!)
- Just like that, we've doubled our vaccine supply.
- We don't know if the vaccine effect will last very long, it could wear off quickly or last for years. This data..6/14

won't come for months.
- We don't know if the vaccine works in all types of people (age, gender, etc.). It sure seems like it, with such good efficacy, but we need the full dataset to know for sure.
- We don't know if either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines block transmission.7/14

of the virus from one person to another. It's possible people are protected from symptoms but not from asymptomatic infections that could be contagious. This needs to be tested formally!!
- The vaccine won't be submitted to the FDA for 'emergency' approval until December, ..8/14

and then it will take time to approve. So first vaccine roll-out won't be until 2021.
- Like with Pfizer, this vaccine won't be available right away to the general public. It will go to priority groups first, like first-responders and people at risk for severe COVID-19. .. 9/14

For most people, they'll probably need to keep enrolling in these trials to access vaccines over this difficult, dangerous winter. And we need to stay extremely vigilant with our masks and social distancing. ... 10/14

- The next 2 vaccine studies to have results will be for a different technology using "viral vectors." There will be a break before we get those results, at least from US studies. Those trials are both still enrolling. ... 11/14

- And the biggest caveat of all: vaccine acceptance. So far I've been talking about the benefit of the vaccine to the *individual*. To talk about the benefit to the *public* you need to account for how many people in a community get vaccinated. Even with a vaccine ... 12/14

that is near 100% effective (and blocks transmission), if less than half of people get vaccinated (in a social circle) then the virus will continue to find vulnerable people and the pandemic will continue. Right now, vaccine acceptance is polling at 30-40% in a lot of ... 13/14

surveys. This is especially true in communities of color that are the hardest hit. This is now the most critical issue in COVID-19 vaccine development. But, a good day! It's really fun to see a lot of exhausted scientists and doctors let their guard down and just smile. 14/14