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The ‘single biggest investment in social housing in Victoria’?
Whilst every peak body and Labor MP is gushing over this, there is little detail offered. But from what we do know, using their stated numbers, it is not what it seems. See: https://www.vic.gov.au/homes-victoria-delivering
Thread 1/12
Whilst every peak body and Labor MP is gushing over this, there is little detail offered. But from what we do know, using their stated numbers, it is not what it seems. See: https://www.vic.gov.au/homes-victoria-delivering
Thread 1/12
The numbers - $5.3b
Only about $1.5b has so far been directed to funding builds. This takes the shape of a $532m land gift to Community Housing (CH) and private developers (PD) and $948 million payment to PDs and CH to underwrite the development of economically unfeasible sites
Only about $1.5b has so far been directed to funding builds. This takes the shape of a $532m land gift to Community Housing (CH) and private developers (PD) and $948 million payment to PDs and CH to underwrite the development of economically unfeasible sites
$1.38b addition to the Social Housing Growth Fund, a low-interest bond making machine for Community Housing
$2.14b future fund with no clear objectives, but is likely to take the form of land gifts and payments to private developers and Community housing
$2.14b future fund with no clear objectives, but is likely to take the form of land gifts and payments to private developers and Community housing
This $3.5b is not likely to be fully spent, and if any of the $1.38b is utilised by CH, it will be paid back, so no net spend here.
The future fund is pie in the sky and more of a commitment than something solid. There are no builds identified here.
The future fund is pie in the sky and more of a commitment than something solid. There are no builds identified here.
In terms of the 12,000 units, well thats not really true. Their 'fast-start projects' ( https://www.vic.gov.au/homes-victoria-fast-start-projects) are all previously identified renewal sites. In order to build 'new' dwellings, they have to demolish the existing ones. The say they will lose about 1,000 dwellings...
I will crunch the numbers on this in due course, but important to note is that the existing stock includes 3- and 4-bedroom dwellings, new builds are almost all 1s and 2s.
On each of the fast-tracked sites, there will be a loss in overall bedrooms = a loss in dwelling capacity
On each of the fast-tracked sites, there will be a loss in overall bedrooms = a loss in dwelling capacity
Homes Victoria say there will be 9,300 new Community Housing properties, but remember that there will be a loss of 1,100 Public Housing properties, so a net gain of 8,200 Social Housing properties by 2027. Seems like a long time to wait for a 8,200 properties, no?
For a breakdown on the difference between Public Housing and Community Housing, see: https://www.savepublichousing.com/what-is-social-housing
Important to know the difference, because under this scheme there will be no new Public Housing dwellings built, they will all be Community Housing = more expensive, less secure and private.
Of the affordable component, nobody knows how many they will build, only that there will be +2,900 affordable and market housing properties.
Configuration is unclear, but:
Market properties = unaffordable
Affordable properties if 80% of market = unaffordable
Configuration is unclear, but:
Market properties = unaffordable
Affordable properties if 80% of market = unaffordable
The $0.3b is made up by assembling projects already funded in previous budgets, so some carry over credits there.
Summary.
- no new Public Housing
- broad-scale land gifting to private developers
- gift of about 8,200 dwellings to Community Housing (by 2027)
To use an academic phrase, this is shit.
12/12
- no new Public Housing
- broad-scale land gifting to private developers
- gift of about 8,200 dwellings to Community Housing (by 2027)
To use an academic phrase, this is shit.
12/12
Addendum. I forgot that Community Housing only have to lease 75% of their allocations to people from the Victorian Housing register. This means that the figure of 8,200 is actually 6,150.
THE 'BIGGEST SOCIAL HOUSING SPEND' WILL HOUSE 6,150 APPLICANTS FROM THE VHR (by 2027)
THE 'BIGGEST SOCIAL HOUSING SPEND' WILL HOUSE 6,150 APPLICANTS FROM THE VHR (by 2027)
This point is informed speculation (I really hope I am wrong). Given the logic of the current renewal model, there could be an additional loss of 5,590 PH dwellings. They will be replaced by 6,150, a net uplift of 10%.
This would mean that the stock grows by only 560 dwellings
This would mean that the stock grows by only 560 dwellings
This is the worst case scenario
