So I’d spent a lot of time focusing on the CD4 race, trying to figure out how it was that Burgess Owens pulled off this win in CD4.

As I wrote last week the precincts where turnout was below-average and in some instances below 2018 levels were McAdams precincts. But … #utpol

… I had somehow overlooked this truly shocking statistic.

Owens only got 67% of the vote in Utah Co. More than 6% worse than Mia Love did there two years ago. But look at the NUMBER of votes they got there …

Love: 23,432
Owens: 38,216

That’s a 63% increase. #utpol

That is unreal. McAdams got the same percentage in Utah Co as he did in 2018.

But the number of votes cast in the 4th District in Utah Co increased by 78%.

Seventy. Eight. Percent.

Salt Lake County saw a 33% increase in number of votes. #utpol

Another way to look at it … in 2018, Utah Co. votes accounted for less than 12% of the ballots cast, compared to 85% for SLCo. This year, they accounted for more than 15%, compared to 82% in SLCO.

May not seem like much, but that raises the pressure to perform in SLCo. #utpol

And when, as I mentioned at the start, Dem precincts in SLCo don’t turn out at the same rate as the GOP precincts in the south valley … Well, that’s how you lose by a couple thousand votes.

Credit to the Republicans, esp. in Utah Co. for getting people out. #utpol

Oh hey. A couple additional points …

McAdams outperformed BIden in the 4th District portion of SLCO. Before today’s votes (which weren’t a lot) he had about 158,000 votes to Biden’s 150,000.

Wilson and Ghorbani both did worse than Biden countywide. #utpol

Owens underperformed Trump in the 4th District portion of SLCo, 147,000 for Trump to 130,000 for Owens.

Obviously Trump won Utah Co portion easily and won the district. But seems like there weren’t Biden coattails for Ben, and there were Trump coattails for Owens. #utpol