1. $11M seems like a lot, but FB velo spiked 2.6 mph, K/whiff/spin rates up in age-31 season.

2. ATL w/another 1-yr vet deal, discount due to durability+new skill level

3. Kudos to SFG betting on upside Ps w/Smyly+Gausman

4. SP market is set w/QOs/Ray deals, should keep moving https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1328402215048974336

Con: I projected 1/7 for Smyly since it was only 26.1 IP in 2020 that this is all based on, he was below replacement level in 2019, threw one pro inning in 2017+2018, and he's only pitched a full season in an MLB rotation twice.

Pro: ATL buying lowish on small sample that Smyly has figured out the best way to use his skills. Somewhat common for high arm slot/4-seam/curve to find velo/spin spike and it sticks. Can fit in multiple roles depending on how much young starting pitchers are needed.

Lastly, there's about a dozen free agent SPs in this general price range, so ATL had to feel Smyly was the best of this group OR near the top AND the best willing to sign now for this price. Many teams will wait around late for the cheapest. Full list: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30170872/ranking-every-mlb-free-agent-2020-offseason