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Interesting NICS data trends from October (sorry this is long)
1) There didn't seem to be pre-election bump for gun sales (much to my chagrin), but gun sales are still stronger than this point last year. Still, the summer spike is ebbing.
1) There didn't seem to be pre-election bump for gun sales (much to my chagrin), but gun sales are still stronger than this point last year. Still, the summer spike is ebbing.
2) the ratio of handguns vs long guns sold, shows handguns are being sold in states with lower overall rates of gun ownership. This would support the idea that new gun owners are buying hand guns rather than long guns (assuming that more "new" owners are in these states)
3) Comparing the election results to gun sales, there is a positive correlation between GOP voters and the rate of gun sales in a state (no big surprise there)
4) But the strongest relationship for gun sales is still the prevalence of gun owners in a state. This is a pattern that has held all summer/fall.
I really expected Oct. to be a spike in gun sales prior to the election, this might still happen with Nov. but we'd have to see.
The fact that handguns are selling in states with fewer owners would support the idea that COVID and protests in 2020 inspired a lot of new owners.
The fact that handguns are selling in states with fewer owners would support the idea that COVID and protests in 2020 inspired a lot of new owners.
but the the fact that guns are selling fastest (per capita) in the states with more gun owners would suggest the spikes in sales are also being driven by current gun owners and not entirely by new owners.
Finally, seasonality in gun sales still exists! We're seeing "handgun season" begin to ebb (after a pretty hefty spike in the summer) and long guns selling again (although handguns are still dominating the market)
