The stage seems to be set for Boris to deliver his much-trailed 10 point plan on 'building back green' this Thursday, ahead of the spending review next week, and Energy White Paper thereafter.
Ahead of this, I've set out some thoughts/guesses on what to look out for (or not)…
Let's start with the narrative.
When Govt started work on the White Paper 3 years ago it was framed as response to the Cost of Energy Review.
A lot has changed since. Expect framing on green jobs, levelling up, and promoting the UK as global leader on decarbonisation.
On power sector I would expect a strong focus on offshore wind (40GW target + floaters), nuclear (Sizewell + SMRs) and CCS, as well as measures to secure UK content (R&D, training). Less emphasis on solar and onshore wind (but they can still access Pot 1).
On transport: we could see the ICE ban brought forward to 2030? Supporting this with a Zero Emission Mandate would also make sense and push the burden from EV grants towards the OEMs. Measures to secure a Gigafactory and more EV chargers could also be prominent.
On a different transport tack - there could be a thread about how lockdown has changed the way we work, with significant numbers of people WFH. Enabling this to continue through investments in broadband could help to deliver lower emissions and the leveling up agendas...
Harder to predict what the 10 point plan will say about heating. Maybe an extension to the Green Homes Grant? I'd like to see a commitment to a larger scale trial of hydrogen and electric heating options. [Adding a carbon price to gas is in the too difficult box].
I expect Hydrogen to feature prominently - as a solution to hard to abate sectors such as industry, heavy transport & heating. UK lacks a hydrogen strategy, so will be interesting to see if there are any hard commitments to incentives for demand/supply, or electrolyser targets.
I'd also expect R&D/Innovation and Treeplanting to feature in the speech, although less likely there will be new money here, since the Govt already announced increases in funding for both.
Could we also see the comeback of a green investment bank? The previous GIB was in a catch 22: state aid restrictions meant it could only offer commercial terms, but it also had to demonstrate additionality. Brexit could alter these restrictions but depends exactly where we land
What are the wildcards?
BECCS? Govt doesn't have a very clear position on this.
DACCs? Dominic Cummings was keen but has now departed.
Road User Charging? Important but more for HMT next week?
Simplification of carbon pricing? Locational pricing? Maybe ones for the White Paper!
Beyond what I listed, what do you expect/hope to see in the 10 point plan?
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