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Lots of talk (& confusion) today about EU ratification & #Brexit. All you need to know in this short thread.
1. Should you care about EU ratification? Yes. Brexit talks ongoing – but they're only part of the challenge. UK & EU also need time to vote & get ready for change.
2. Who in EU votes on UK-EU FTA? Depends on content of the deal. If:
(i) “EU-only” (areas of EU law only): then approval is needed at EU level (Council & EU Parliament)
(ii) “mixed agreement” (areas of EU & member-state law, like aviation): then approval at EU level *and* in MS
(i) “EU-only” (areas of EU law only): then approval is needed at EU level (Council & EU Parliament)
(ii) “mixed agreement” (areas of EU & member-state law, like aviation): then approval at EU level *and* in MS
3. What about UK-EU FTA? V likely to be mixed agreement. Member states cd decide to limit ratification to EU level. But seems unlikely: they won’t want to upset their nat/regional parliaments by taking vote away from them. BUT fortunately, MS vote can take place after 2020.
[3bis. UK-EU deal cd be "EU-only". For example, EU-Japan deal was considered EU-only even though it was a mixed agreement; but then again, Commission considered EU-Canada deal an "EU only" deal but MS pushed for it to be a mixed agreement. So who knows].
4. Step-by-step EU vote guide:
1. Council (member states) “sign” agreement (basically say whether they like it)
2. EP votes
3. Council gives consent
4. Member-state ratification (but that can take place AFTER 2020). Deal is “provisionally” applied pending full ratification.
1. Council (member states) “sign” agreement (basically say whether they like it)
2. EP votes
3. Council gives consent
4. Member-state ratification (but that can take place AFTER 2020). Deal is “provisionally” applied pending full ratification.
4. But does EP need to vote before 31 Dec? As @StevePeers notes, Council (member states) cd decide to provisionally apply UK-EU deal in absence of EU parliament vote – but they won’t want to.
5. EU Parliament (EP) vote: Ideally, EP would vote in last plenary of this year (w/c 14 Dec). EP cd be recalled for “extraordinary sitting” before end of the yr to vote on UK-EU deal; but no-one wants that at Xmas time.
7. Council vote: No vote as such. But they won’t formally give consent to UK-EU deal until EU Parliament has voted.
8. Member state vote (if required): Ratification can take place after 2020. Council can decide to provisionally apply agreement in areas of EU law pending full ratification. As @StevePeers notes, political declaration already mentions possibility of provisional application.
9. But provisional application (PA) not straightforward:
1. Need to discuss it inside EU & with UK.
2. Not a permanent state either (almost collapsed for EU-Canada when Belgian reg parliament threatened to veto deal).
3. Can be withdrawn unilaterally.
1. Need to discuss it inside EU & with UK.
2. Not a permanent state either (almost collapsed for EU-Canada when Belgian reg parliament threatened to veto deal).
3. Can be withdrawn unilaterally.
10. For more information on EU ratification:
pp. 8 -10: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/implementing-brexit-securing-more-time
And here https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/future-relationship-ratification
pp. 8 -10: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/implementing-brexit-securing-more-time
And here https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/future-relationship-ratification
On and @instituteforgov will be publishing an explainer on what needs to happen on UK side (courtesy of @ThimontJack & @jameskkane). Watch this space.
