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Hoping policymakers in DC will consider this, if they've read the Atlantic Council's unhelpful, 'give war a chance' briefing on Ethiopia's conflict in Tigray. THREAD
1) TPLF's (often brutal) grip on power - under Meles & after - was varied, not uncontested or monolithic.
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1) TPLF's (often brutal) grip on power - under Meles & after - was varied, not uncontested or monolithic.
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This point helps to make sense the slow unravelling of the TPLF's position between 2012 and 2018, when several years of protests and other challenges were leveraged by elements within the EPRDF to shift the internal balance against TPLF, allowing Abiy to emerge as leader.
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2) Violence had been a feature of the Ethiopian transition since before Abiy took power, but conflict escalated dramatically from 2018. So, the Tigray conflict is not coming out of nowhere. Abiy's government has struggled to contain violence since the start.
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During the last year, tensions have come to a head b/n Abiy and many opposition parties & w/the TPLF, which rejected the EPRDF-Prosperity Party merger plan. Violence has flared in many areas. Failures of governance abound in the lead up to the current escalation in Tigray.
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4/8
3) International leverage in Ethiopia has always been limited. This was the case under the EPRDF, and continues to be so. Ethiopian gov'ts have consistently resisted external financial leverage, despite unorthodox economic or security policies, or approaches to human rights.
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5/8
Moreover, lest anyone in Washington labour under the misapprehension of their having leverage over Addis Ababa, the Trump administration has burned significant goodwill w/its approach to the Nile waters/GERD talks. Biden won't magically replenish this just by taking office.
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6/8
Altogether, this points to the need for the US to take a supporting, not leading, role in calling for de-escalation and comprehensive national dialogue in Ethiopia. Reevaluate what incentives it might have to support peaceful politics.
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7/8
Ethiopia & the Horn of Africa need a new approach from Washington, not a return to the 1990s, or to the Obama-era securitised approach to the region.
In the meantime, support for regional efforts to promote peace would not be misplaced.
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In the meantime, support for regional efforts to promote peace would not be misplaced.
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