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THREAD 1/6
Following the #Hungarian and #Polish veto of #MFF & #NextGenerationEU, EU institutions and member states have practically 2 and half strategic options:
First, they can abandon the agreed #RuleOfLaw conditionality deal, soften the regulation and please Warsaw & Budapest
Following the #Hungarian and #Polish veto of #MFF & #NextGenerationEU, EU institutions and member states have practically 2 and half strategic options:
First, they can abandon the agreed #RuleOfLaw conditionality deal, soften the regulation and please Warsaw & Budapest
2/6
In light of the fact that the today #COREPER confirmed the draft #RoL regulation, that would be a huge loss of face and would encourage #Orbán and #Morawiecki to use the veto threats as a strategic weapon to hijack EU decision making whenever they can.
In light of the fact that the today #COREPER confirmed the draft #RoL regulation, that would be a huge loss of face and would encourage #Orbán and #Morawiecki to use the veto threats as a strategic weapon to hijack EU decision making whenever they can.
3/6
Second, the @EUCouncil and the @Europarl_EN can officially approve the #RoL conditionality regulations asap. If the regulation will anyhow come into force and will be an unavoidable part of any future EU budgets, the #Hungarian & #Polish vetos lose their reason d'etre.
Second, the @EUCouncil and the @Europarl_EN can officially approve the #RoL conditionality regulations asap. If the regulation will anyhow come into force and will be an unavoidable part of any future EU budgets, the #Hungarian & #Polish vetos lose their reason d'etre.
4/6
In that case, @EU2020DE & @eucopresident should agree/offer that #Poland & #Hungary file an action for annulment against the RoL conditionality and the #CJEU will decide whether the regulation is in line with #EUlaw.
In that case, @EU2020DE & @eucopresident should agree/offer that #Poland & #Hungary file an action for annulment against the RoL conditionality and the #CJEU will decide whether the regulation is in line with #EUlaw.
5/6
That would allow
&
GOVs to withdraw while saving their faces and postpone the implementation of the RoL regulation for a period of time. Fingers crossed for a fast CJEU ruling.
That would allow
& GOVs to withdraw while saving their faces and postpone the implementation of the RoL regulation for a period of time. Fingers crossed for a fast CJEU ruling.
6/6
Third, the half option is, that #NextGenerationEU can be established outside of the EU treaty framework, as an intergovernmental deal, even without&, punishing them for their behaviour. However, that doesn't offers any solution for the MFF, hence doesn't solve the crisis
Third, the half option is, that #NextGenerationEU can be established outside of the EU treaty framework, as an intergovernmental deal, even without
&, punishing them for their behaviour. However, that doesn't offers any solution for the MFF, hence doesn't solve the crisis
@rdanielkelemen @ProfPech @EU2020DE @dreynders @VeraJourova @daniel_freund @katka_cseh @POLITICOEurope @herszenhorn @SFischer_EU @eublogo @andrew_r_gray @gmfus
+1
With an eye on the solutions, it is also important not to deceive ourselves about the causes. The EU‘s recent institutional crisis was not induced by the @EU_Commission's #RuleOfLaw conditionality proposal.
With an eye on the solutions, it is also important not to deceive ourselves about the causes. The EU‘s recent institutional crisis was not induced by the @EU_Commission's #RuleOfLaw conditionality proposal.
+2
The crisis is the undeniable, logic consequence of ten years of EU politics that underplayed and failed to properly address the threat posed by autocratizing member states and always gave priority to challenges other than the protection of democracy and rule of law.
The crisis is the undeniable, logic consequence of ten years of EU politics that underplayed and failed to properly address the threat posed by autocratizing member states and always gave priority to challenges other than the protection of democracy and rule of law.
+3
If EU institutions and member states give in, extortion by veto and institutional crises will be the earmarks of the EU’s new political reality.
If EU institutions and member states give in, extortion by veto and institutional crises will be the earmarks of the EU’s new political reality.
