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My latest for @RealClearNews explores the question "Who Deserves Blame for Democrats' Lost House Seats?"
Some highlights... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/11/16/who_deserves_blame_for_democrats_lost_house_seats.html
Some highlights... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/11/16/who_deserves_blame_for_democrats_lost_house_seats.html
...First, let's challenge the premise that much blame is deserved
While it's unusual to lose House seats in a year you win the presidential election, it's *not* unusual to give back seats soon after making double digit gains as Ds did in '18 (see below).. https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1326176317243535361
While it's unusual to lose House seats in a year you win the presidential election, it's *not* unusual to give back seats soon after making double digit gains as Ds did in '18 (see below).. https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1326176317243535361
...and it was a high turnout election all around, boosting R turnout in redder areas. Ds had to defend 30 seats in Trump '16-won districts. They kept at least 21. Not bad...
...The question remains whether Dems could have done anything better. Moderates blame progressives for pushing "socialism" and "defund the police." AOC pushes back claiming moderates ran poor digital campaigns...
...both camps share some blame in my view. You can clearly see how the "socialist" attack drew blood in FL 26 and FL 27, two Clinton '16 districts, one which flipped to Trump and the other narrowed dramatically...
...Rep. Shalala in FL 27 made an unforced error when she called herself a "pragmatic socialist" in an Oct. TV interview, which her opponent quickly turned into an ad ...
...Shalala just misspoke. Seconds later she said, "I’m as far from being a socialist as anyone that you’ll ever meet. I’m a capitalist." (Full interview: https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/politics/impact/nbc-6-impact-representative-donna-shalala/2308496/ ) ...
...That's the kind of flub that Biden makes all the time. But Biden is very well-known commodity. When the Trump campaign tried to take such moments to make him appear to be a socialist, Biden was able to shrug them off...
...Which speaks to the blame that the moderates should accept. Minimal digital campaigning isn't the problem, but the overall low-key approach many first-term moderates took upon winning their seats...
...That low-key approach included minimal departures from the party in their House voting record. GOP ads hammered several losing Dem first-termers for voting with Pelosi around 90% of the time...
...if you are a Democratic in a red district, and you don't have a distinctive, independent persona, you're not going to win enough ticket-splitters to keep your seat. Don't blame progressives for that. Own your record and strategy...
...For more, please check out the column at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/11/16/who_deserves_blame_for_democrats_lost_house_seats.html
