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RIP levelling up? There's concern among red wall Tories the agenda for the north will disappear with Dominic Cummings and Vote Leave gang. Why that might not be the case:
-Cummings was 100% focused on Moonshot testing in recent months. He had little to do with domestic agenda.
-Cummings was 100% focused on Moonshot testing in recent months. He had little to do with domestic agenda.
- Cummings was mostly disengaged with the 2019 election that broke the red wall. Johnson's victory was mostly due to Tory operatives Isaac Levido and Michael Brooks who came with with 'Get Brexit Done' + Rachel Woolf and Munira Mirza wrote the manifesto. https://www.ft.com/content/ab3692b0-2317-11ea-92da-f0c92e957a96
- The key ingredient in the 2019 result was not just policies and strategy, but Johnson himself Anyone who has spent time in the red wall will know that his personality resonated among first time voters. As was seen in Sedgefield: https://twitter.com/charlotterlynch/status/1205844676387000320
- The new two key figures in Johnson's No10 have plenty of experience and views about levelling up.
Munira Mirza, head of the No10 policy unit, grew up in Oldham and contributed much to the 2019 manifesto about addressing the needs of towns that feel left behind.
Munira Mirza, head of the No10 policy unit, grew up in Oldham and contributed much to the 2019 manifesto about addressing the needs of towns that feel left behind.
- Allegra Stratton, new press secretary, was ITV News' national editor before moving into politics. Much of her reporting was focused on social fabric and policy issues - the sort of areas the Johnson govt has to address. https://www.itv.com/news/2018-10-16/major-increases-in-violence-across-english-and-welsh-counties-with-large-jumps-in-the-use-of-both-knives-and-guns
- Arguably the biggest hit the Tories have taken in the red wall was Barnard Castle. All the newly elected Conservative MPs in the north east were furious at the lack of apology and had to be talked out of calling on Cummings to go by No10. Anger about it remains deep.
- The biggest challenge to levelling up isn't Cummings, but coronavirus. Johnson pledged £100bn to address regional inequality, but has ended up spending £400bn tackling Covid. In the upcoming spending review, govt will have to answer how the agenda can survive the pandemic.
- Johnson's early post-reset efforts to reach out to @JakeBerry and the Northern Research Group of MPs suggest he is aware that all of his electoral hopes rest on keeping these MPs on side. Feeding in their ideas is the job of the new No10 policy board and @NeilDotObrien
- The notion that the Tories have to purely speak to the north or south - as suggested in some weekend op-eds - suggests the party can't do two things at once. No policy reason why the Johnson coalition can't be held together along the same lines as the 2019 manifesto.
- There's plenty more to be said about the red wall, whether the Tories can hold onto it and can Keir Starmer win it back. In fact, I'm writing a book on it! Broken Heartlands, out later this year with @panmacmillan, will have the full story on the ground https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/red-wall-constituencies-north-east-18995760
- PS, the notion that focusing on "softer issues" such as the environment is disastrous for the red wall is misguided. Green industry is a key part of rebuilding the economy after Covid.
Conservatism and green issues should go hand in hand. As Matthew Parris wrote this weekend:
Conservatism and green issues should go hand in hand. As Matthew Parris wrote this weekend:
