Read on Twitter
/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Mike Yastrzemski , OF
San Francisco #Giants
30 years old
Drafted: 2013, Round 14; Pick 23 (BAL)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
54 G
225 PA
192 AB
.297/.400/.568
10 HR
39 R
35 RBI
2 SB
.407 wOBA
160 wRC+
2.7 WAR
13.3 BB%
24.4 K%
54 G
225 PA
192 AB
.297/.400/.568
10 HR
39 R
35 RBI
2 SB
.407 wOBA
160 wRC+
2.7 WAR
13.3 BB%
24.4 K%
After spending 6 years in the minors, the Orioles decided to finally give up on Yastrzemski after the 2018 season.
After all, not many prospects break out after the age of 28.
So they traded him to the Giants for minor league veteran Tyler Herb.
A mistake they no doubt regret
After all, not many prospects break out after the age of 28.
So they traded him to the Giants for minor league veteran Tyler Herb.
A mistake they no doubt regret
A reason for this was the way in which the Orioles viewed Yastrzemski.
They disliked his long, whiplike swing & instead forced him into an A-to-B compact swing.
The mechanical change was both uncomfortable & unsuccessful, which ultimately led to BAL moving him to the Giants.
They disliked his long, whiplike swing & instead forced him into an A-to-B compact swing.
The mechanical change was both uncomfortable & unsuccessful, which ultimately led to BAL moving him to the Giants.
SF sent Yaz to AAA to start 2019 before a May hot streak inspired them to give the 28 year old a shot.
After a timid start Yaz slashed 287/.354/.562 in the 2nd half for the Giants w/ 21 HR & 121 wRC+ for the season.
After a timid start Yaz slashed 287/.354/.562 in the 2nd half for the Giants w/ 21 HR & 121 wRC+ for the season.
His rookie performance put Yaz on the sleeper radar for many fantasy analysts heading into last season.
To say he exceeded optimistic expectations would be an understatement.
At age 29, he was able to parlay the opportunity SF offered him in 2019 into receiving MVP votes.
To say he exceeded optimistic expectations would be an understatement.
At age 29, he was able to parlay the opportunity SF offered him in 2019 into receiving MVP votes.
But inevitably, there are still non-believers in Yastrzemski’s ability to repeat his performance.
After all, 30-year olds do not typically get “better” in baseball. At least in terms of fantasy production.
A hitters BB% may peak near age 32, but SLG% & AVG peak closer to age 28
After all, 30-year olds do not typically get “better” in baseball. At least in terms of fantasy production.
A hitters BB% may peak near age 32, but SLG% & AVG peak closer to age 28
But age is not the only question mark when it comes to Yastrzemski.
- .370 BABIP
- 60 game sample size as a large chunk of his short track record
- How Oracle Park played w/ no fans (archways closed)
Let’s break this thing down & see what we can expect going forward.
- .370 BABIP
- 60 game sample size as a large chunk of his short track record
- How Oracle Park played w/ no fans (archways closed)
Let’s break this thing down & see what we can expect going forward.
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 19.0%
GB - 38.7%
FB - 42.3%
Pull - 43.1%
Middle - 35.8%
Opp - 21.2%
Hard Contact - 37.2%
Med Contact - 43.1%
Soft Contact - 19.7%
Exit Velocity - 88.2 mph
Max EV - 105.6 mph
Barrel % - 10.9
Launch Angle - 18.4°
sd(LA) - 30.3°
LD - 19.0%
GB - 38.7%
FB - 42.3%
Pull - 43.1%
Middle - 35.8%
Opp - 21.2%
Hard Contact - 37.2%
Med Contact - 43.1%
Soft Contact - 19.7%
Exit Velocity - 88.2 mph
Max EV - 105.6 mph
Barrel % - 10.9
Launch Angle - 18.4°
sd(LA) - 30.3°
There is...nothing special in this profile.
Yastrzemski is a fine example of doing what you can, with what you have. Albeit an extreme case.
Low avg EV accompanied by a lackluster Max EV.
Middle of the road Hard% w/ an inconsistent swing -> sd(LA)
Yastrzemski is a fine example of doing what you can, with what you have. Albeit an extreme case.
Low avg EV accompanied by a lackluster Max EV.
Middle of the road Hard% w/ an inconsistent swing -> sd(LA)
The low EV is not nearly as bad when you factor in the 83.6 anchor from GB.
Yaz FBLD EV settled in at 93.2 mph, which was enough to eclipse players such as:
- M.Betts
- A.Rendon
- C.Correa
While carrying a Barrel/BBE (10.9) above:
- P.Goldschmidt
- J.Ramirez
- C.Bellinger
Yaz FBLD EV settled in at 93.2 mph, which was enough to eclipse players such as:
- M.Betts
- A.Rendon
- C.Correa
While carrying a Barrel/BBE (10.9) above:
- P.Goldschmidt
- J.Ramirez
- C.Bellinger
When I look over this profile, the first player that pops into my mind is Michael Brantley, as far as batted ball data.
That is, if Brantley struck out all the time & actively attempted to elevate the ball.
That is essentially what we are looking at. (See chart below)
That is, if Brantley struck out all the time & actively attempted to elevate the ball.
That is essentially what we are looking at. (See chart below)
Brantley is known for being a “professional hitter,” (apologies for those who dislike the phrase) who has remained successful for years despite a career 4.2 Barrel% & middling EV.
Yastrzemski had to follow a somewhat similar path, albeit at a later age.
Yastrzemski had to follow a somewhat similar path, albeit at a later age.
SF was a great spot to do that w/ new age manager Gabe Kapler & his team of hitting coaches.
Yastrzemski’s teammates Brandon Crawford (33) & Brandon Belt (32) posted career best OPS+ this past season.
Kapler credits this to a constant willingness to adjust & adapt.
Yastrzemski’s teammates Brandon Crawford (33) & Brandon Belt (32) posted career best OPS+ this past season.
Kapler credits this to a constant willingness to adjust & adapt.
Yastrzemski is constantly working on fine tuning his movement & mechanics.
This allows him to make the most of his natural “whiplike” swing (that BAL nixed), despite physical limitations.
One major change was his approach, especially w/ two strikes.
This allows him to make the most of his natural “whiplike” swing (that BAL nixed), despite physical limitations.
One major change was his approach, especially w/ two strikes.
In 2019, over 1/2 of Yaz HR (11) came w/ 2 strikes. In 2020, 8 of 10 HR.
In the minors, w/ 2 strikes, He would choke up, shorten his swing, & expand the zone.
He now makes a point to put his “best swing” on the ball, regardless of the count.
If that means more K, so be it.
In the minors, w/ 2 strikes, He would choke up, shorten his swing, & expand the zone.
He now makes a point to put his “best swing” on the ball, regardless of the count.
If that means more K, so be it.
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 9.1%
Contact: 76.5%
Swing: 38.9%
O-Swing: 23.4%
Z-Swing: 59.7%
O-Contact: 64.3%
Z-Contact: 82.9%
Yastrzemski sees a lot of pitches, w/ a Swing% 7 points below MLB avg.
But he holds a solid SwStr% & O-Swing% 7 points better than MLB avg
SwStr: 9.1%
Contact: 76.5%
Swing: 38.9%
O-Swing: 23.4%
Z-Swing: 59.7%
O-Contact: 64.3%
Z-Contact: 82.9%
Yastrzemski sees a lot of pitches, w/ a Swing% 7 points below MLB avg.
But he holds a solid SwStr% & O-Swing% 7 points better than MLB avg
Plate discipline is the part of Yastrzemski’s game that will keep him afloat among the adjustments.
This skill set also pairs perfectly w/ the Giants philosophy to always deploy your best swing.
Best swing + Good pitches to hit = success
But process can only get you so far.
This skill set also pairs perfectly w/ the Giants philosophy to always deploy your best swing.
Best swing + Good pitches to hit = success
But process can only get you so far.
The issue w/ Yastrzemski is that he simply lacks the tools to unlock further upside.
So the question is what are realistic expectations vs his floor?
Over 161 games (638 PA) he has hit:
.281/.357/.535
31 HR
90 RBI
103 R
4 SB
But...
So the question is what are realistic expectations vs his floor?
Over 161 games (638 PA) he has hit:
.281/.357/.535
31 HR
90 RBI
103 R
4 SB
But...
...Yastrzemski’s BABIP during 2020 was .370 
If you look at his career minor league totals, that number seems ridiculous.
However, if you only look at his time w/ the Giants (after swing adjustment), then you will see he carried a .344 in AAA & .325 during his rookie year.
If you look at his career minor league totals, that number seems ridiculous.
However, if you only look at his time w/ the Giants (after swing adjustment), then you will see he carried a .344 in AAA & .325 during his rookie year.
So it seems possible for Yaz to carry a higher BABIP than his track record, but he lacks the skills required to guarantee it.
- Avg LD%
- High FB%
- Low EV
- Avg Hard%
-
avg Sprint Speed
Best guess? We can bet on something closer to his 2019 mark (.325) than 2020 (.370).
- Avg LD%
- High FB%
- Low EV
- Avg Hard%
-
avg Sprint SpeedBest guess? We can bet on something closer to his 2019 mark (.325) than 2020 (.370).
It may be unwise to count on SB from Yastrzemski, who has 4 in 9 attempts over 161 MLB games.
He did post years w/ 18 & 14 in the minors, but that was 4 years ago.
If you feel like being optimistic, Yaz does carry a Sprint Speed above:
- F.Lindor
- G.Polanco
- J.Villar
He did post years w/ 18 & 14 in the minors, but that was 4 years ago.
If you feel like being optimistic, Yaz does carry a Sprint Speed above:
- F.Lindor
- G.Polanco
- J.Villar
Bottom line: Yaz’ late breakout was due to a mechanical & philosophical change.
That doesn’t change his age, but it changes the way you should view his track record to project him going forward.
However, the same rules of regression apply & his long swing is not slump proof.
That doesn’t change his age, but it changes the way you should view his track record to project him going forward.
However, the same rules of regression apply & his long swing is not slump proof.
Early ADP (11/15) suggests that enthusiasm may be outpacing reality for Yaz.
NFBC (121.29) ADP may be “fair” but does not leave room for profit that many later round options will.
He may end up closer to Brian Anderson (204.57) production than Alex Verdugo (129.71)
NFBC (121.29) ADP may be “fair” but does not leave room for profit that many later round options will.
He may end up closer to Brian Anderson (204.57) production than Alex Verdugo (129.71)
What to expect from Mike Yastrzemski in 2021:
580 AB
.260/.339/.455
24 HR
90 R
74 RBI
8 SB
I expect Yaz to remain productive, but his 2020 campaign may have been a bit of an outlier.
Plenty of fantasy value but more likely to disappoint than boom if you’re not careful.
580 AB
.260/.339/.455
24 HR
90 R
74 RBI
8 SB
I expect Yaz to remain productive, but his 2020 campaign may have been a bit of an outlier.
Plenty of fantasy value but more likely to disappoint than boom if you’re not careful.
