Good talking to @AasmahMir & @StigAbell on @TimesRadio earlier on what to expect on Brexit over next few weeks. In case you missed it, I argue that a deal remains likely - but not this week 1/

This primarily bc @BorisJohnson can't be seen to be moving too quickly to a deal now Cummings has left. The ”betrayal” narrative is dangerous for the PM, who has to reassure backbenchers he's not going to ”sell out” now Vote Leave crew is out. @Nigel_Farage is ready to pounce 2/

On substance, @BorisJohnson isn't going to get granular. His benchmark will be whether a deal can be ”sold”. UK ”win” on state aid is already clear (UK regime, overseen by UK authority, ”enforced” by UK courts). But €sceptic Right doesn't care about it. They do care about 3/

”Coastal sovereignty”. So Govt will move on LPF when it gets something big it can sell on - a political trade off - no matter who & how many say there won't be. Political deal probs by end Nov; EP consent mid/end Dec. Whole deal (EU & mixed elements) will apply from 1 Jan ENDS