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India and the US are RCEP's great losers.
But that doesn't make China the winner. RCEP is a shallow reflection of the CPTPP. The architects of Asia's trade framework are in Tokyo, Canberra, Singapore, Hanoi, and Beijing is still more of a rule-taker. https://www.wsj.com/articles/asias-massive-new-trade-deal-is-no-big-victory-for-beijing-11605510677?mod=article_inline
But that doesn't make China the winner. RCEP is a shallow reflection of the CPTPP. The architects of Asia's trade framework are in Tokyo, Canberra, Singapore, Hanoi, and Beijing is still more of a rule-taker. https://www.wsj.com/articles/asias-massive-new-trade-deal-is-no-big-victory-for-beijing-11605510677?mod=article_inline
1. RCEP is an ASEAN project, not just a Chinese one
2. It's difficult to see it progressing much further, given how commercial diplomacy with China has deteriorated for countries like Australia
3. It almost formalizes the fact where the continuity TPP leads, China must follow
2. It's difficult to see it progressing much further, given how commercial diplomacy with China has deteriorated for countries like Australia
3. It almost formalizes the fact where the continuity TPP leads, China must follow
The rules of origin parts of the deal, per Petri & Plummer, are the most important part and the only place where it's a genuine upgrade to something in CPTPP. Everything else -- environmental, labour, investment, services, standards, disputes settlement, competition -- lags.
