1/x It took an extra day & an extra whipsaw to lose the weak longs, but as I reiterated yesterday, & as you saw again at EOD Fri + now in ETH, these massive Charm/Vanna flows are hard to fight... SO, here is the rally we have continuously called for all month, leading into 11/16

2/x in the end... as stated previously, UNPINNING THIS MARKET UNTIL 11/18 MORNING, WILL NOT BE EASY, as near-term SPX continues to be well oversupplied...As expected, increased election certainty has continued to play a positive role as well, as longer term vols have continued to

3/x decline releasing their long-embedded potential energy in the form of even more vanna flows. These Vol flows paired with 1) GS estimates of +$37B worth of systematic equity flows in an up tape over the next week. 2) as mentioned, the stabilization of the Growth complex W-Fri

4/x which performed some of the much needed repair of the negative rotation beneath the surface from M-Tues 3) the continued dramatic reduction in retail call buying for the substitution of fearful put buying the last week... all have been a fuel for the expected healthy bounce..

5/x But as we have now met our month long goal in time (11/16-11/18) & space (3600), now we must begin the process of carefully evaluating the market’s next objectives...The last 2 days strength has been encouraging, in that it has gotten the market back ‘on script’ with the

6/x expected underlying flows. As these known supportive positive flows dissipate next week, though, a window of weakness should still be left in their wake...A correction of price and/or time is likely coming starting sometime between Mon morning-Thurs morning.But seeing as it’s

7/x expected by an increasing number of market participants, expect a Vol increase to proceed it here on the rally once again, as we slide to cheap fixed strike vols & retail call buying surges once again.... Despite the likely coming digestión in time & price, time is still on

8/x the side of the bulls, as improving seasonality, as well as the potential resolution of election uncertainty could provide fuel to significantly improving seasonality around the coming holidays & the Jan effect...Given this,I suspect a coming time/price correction will likely

9/x be met w/ market down/Vol down if/when it comes again...Possibly leading to a buyable dip by 11/30.Be careful not to buy into the dip too soon, as there are no guarantees it’ll be buyable, given the abundance of unsettled political & Covid related concerns...Let the calendar

10/x be your guide & the 20 day on close be your trailing stop, if/when the correction comes. Continue to watch the NDX relative performance, rates, & p/c equity values as clues to timing & as always don’t be dogmatic...We’ll be flattening delta in the AM & then tactically

11/x scalping our levels from both sides during the day & then, as usual, the long side w/our fair lady starting at 2CST...The odds are in the corner up the bulls until Weds 11/18, but it pays to be watchful, for the 1st time in a month, looking for tactical shorts, now that we

12/x have entered OpEx week & the window of instability is opening. Jan-March vol continues to be cheap & we continue to own calendar spreads, OEV neutral, in preparation for the coming correction in time/price... Good Luck!!!