Thread.
I don't blame Nitish for Bihar's stagnation. There are roadblocks of severe nature even when neglecting political problems. Holding the door for 15 years is a big achievement. What can come next is not easy to predict and only for time to reveal
Bihar's regions are very disparate and demography fractured. The eastern part is close to BD and thus demographically and culturally different from western part which is closer to hinterland. North is prone to devastating annual floods. State is overall (almost) double landlocked
Central part near Patna has been the only natural urbanized area in much of history. Bihar has much less in common with UP than people may realize. These disparities will amplify if and when growth picks up
Local private sector investment at scale such as in heavy industries or IT will be hard. People are aspirational. Coupled with language familiarity (Hindi) and culture of acing national entrance exams, emigrate quickly mostly never to return
The only competitive private industries at scale thus far have been training these people to leave. But successive governments treated coaching/training as adversarial (brutal extraction during Jungle raj) or with indifference. Ed Tech is now booming, this is a missed opportunity
Staving off Jungle Raj is necessary but not sufficient. This is because, unlike UP, Rajasthan nuclei for development (e.g. incipient manufacturing, education, tourism) are nonexistent. There is nothing for animal spirits to latch on to. Spontaneous sustained growth is tough
There is some hope that new IIT, AIIMS etc. will rejuvenate greater Patna area. But initially these will still be mostly rental and lower paying retail type jobs. Opening Nalanda University entirely in Nalanda and not substantially in Patna was a bad move.
However, quality of life has improved tremendously from what it was two decades ago. 90s Bihar needs another thread. People get comfy and linearly extrapolate. Especially younger people who can't strobe their views over decades.
At times, a reality check is needed. Holding back beasts of disorder over a generation is sometimes among the greatest achievements. My guess, things will accelerate on a much longer time scale. Keep calm and carry on.
End of thread
You can follow @ranajayghosh.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.