Read on Twitter
So, let me try to offer some preliminary analysis on the basis of these preliminary results from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s municipal elxns, and also provide some basic info for those unfamiliar w/ arguably the most complex constitutional regime in the world. 
Municipal (or “local”) elxns in BiH are weird. They traditionally have low turnout even tho local govt affects most day-to-day outcomes for Bosnian citizens. But the elxns are also shaped by macro-political disputes (e.g. threats of secession) so they become de facto midterms.
Going into today, we expected low turnout bc of the pandemic & a muted campaign. And low t/o tends to favor the ruling nationalist triumvirate: the SDA, HDZ, SNSD. And while t/o was low (approx 50%) the results have been a dramatic rebuke of said nationalist establishment.
Keep in mind, the entire Dayton constitutional order is designed to keep nationalists in power. It’s structurally very difficult to be a non-nationalist political party in contemporary BiH. So the big losses by the SDA & SNSD in Sarajevo & Banja Luka but also HDZ in its...
...(west) Herzegovina heartland are huge. In Sarajevo, a coalition of left-liberal parties has trounced the Bosniak nationalist SDA. In BL, the SNSD has lost power to another Serb nationalist bloc but one that’s part of a broader coalition that has historically been willing to...
...caucus w/ “pro-Bosnian” parties. And, in any case, any loss by the long-ruling, secessionist SNSD is good for Bosnian security & stability. So, two Qs:
1. Why did this happen?
2. What does it mean?
1. Why did this happen?
2. What does it mean?
1. I think two things happened: older voters stayed away bc of the pandemic, creating more room for super-motivated reform minded voters to create results in key regions of the country. In SJ & BL both major disillusionment w/ ruling nationalist parties could finally...
...translate to actual elxns outcomes. Opposition parties in both entities have also improved their local capacities - esp “the Foursome” coalition in FBiH. There was also an unusually successful mail-in voting campaign among diaspora that encouraged a lot of new/young voters...
...to participate. One concrete result: it seems the returnee list has recaptured Srebrenica. Symbolically very important but part of a broader breakthrough by opposition parties across the country.
2. What does it all mean? As we head into the 2022 general elxns, it shows progress is still possible in BiH. It’s a game of inches and millimeters but there is very clearly a constituency for change in this country; anti-corruption & anti-oligarchy campaigns are popular in BiH.
In the short term, it may also mean a breakthrough by reform actors in Mostar in Dec — which has not had local elxns since 2008 & has been governed as a veritable fief by the SDA & HDZ during that time. SJ & BL have shown it’s possible to reject the nationalist oligarchy.
Finally, these results offer new “local stakeholders” for the EU & Biden’s U.S. to work with. That may prove esp important viz the new U.S. admin bc there is hope among reform actors that Biden will be willing to revisit the big Qs in BiH; structural, constitutional reforms.
I’ll have more thoughts in the coming days but this is a good day for BiH. Possibly the most “hopeful” election night since 2000. And that’s something worth celebrating in its own right, especially in a country where good news is so rare. 
