So, right now, @Malinowski is leading by about 5k votes, down from about 28k on Election Night. The Boards of Election review mail-in ballots in order of being received and Democrats mostly returned theirs earlier in than Republicans. (1/x)

That means that, by Election Night, the Boards of Election hadn’t yet counted a large portion of Republican ballots, so we expected the margin to narrow (as it has).

At this point, there’s something like 15,000 provisional ballots left to be counted... (2/x)

...mostly in Union, Somerset, and Morris Counties. Based on what we’ve seen so far, things look good. With few votes remaining in Kean’s best counties, it will be hard (although not impossible) for Kean to make up the gap. All signs continue to point to a @Malinowski win. (3/3)

I should clarify, of the 15k, many are from people who already voted by mail but also provisionally when their ballots didn’t show up as received quickly enough on the TrackMyBallot site. Those will be tossed to prevent double voting. So Kean’s route is even more narrow.