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My interview w/ @GrecianFormula:
With its continued dev't of #ASBMs & associated targeting architecture, #China continues to work on changing the game in #SCS & beyond—but so too does US w/ its own developments & countermeasures.
https://bit.ly/DF-26-B https://www.19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas-df-21d-and-df-26b-asbms-is-the-u-s-military-ready/
With its continued dev't of #ASBMs & associated targeting architecture, #China continues to work on changing the game in #SCS & beyond—but so too does US w/ its own developments & countermeasures.
https://bit.ly/DF-26-B https://www.19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas-df-21d-and-df-26b-asbms-is-the-u-s-military-ready/
The game is afoot, and much is at stake.
But by no means is the game over for @USNavy, in the #SouthChinaSea or anywhere else.
https://bit.ly/DF-26-B
My #BottomLine: there’s no cause for declinist defeatism. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas-df-21d-and-df-26b-asbms-is-the-u-s-military-ready/
But by no means is the game over for @USNavy, in the #SouthChinaSea or anywhere else.
https://bit.ly/DF-26-B
My #BottomLine: there’s no cause for declinist defeatism. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas-df-21d-and-df-26b-asbms-is-the-u-s-military-ready/
In @Princeton @PUPolitics's PhD program, I had many great colleagues, incl. @ChongJaIan; w/ @osmastro & @AdamPLiff to follow!
I focused my research on #Chinese #Aerospace Development. Historical summary: https://www.andrewerickson.com/2014/09/chinas-space-development-history-a-comparison-of-the-rocket-and-satellite-sectors-3/
#BottomLine: PRC prioritized #ballistic #missiles.
I focused my research on #Chinese #Aerospace Development. Historical summary: https://www.andrewerickson.com/2014/09/chinas-space-development-history-a-comparison-of-the-rocket-and-satellite-sectors-3/
#BottomLine: PRC prioritized #ballistic #missiles.
My #1 #GradSchool read:
In 1972 Vice Premier Zhang Chunqiao told #China’s Central #Military Commission:
“We are continentalists. Now guided missiles are well developed. Installed on shore, they can hit any target & there is no need to build a big navy.” https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Strategic-Seapower-Modernization-International/dp/0804728046
In 1972 Vice Premier Zhang Chunqiao told #China’s Central #Military Commission:
“We are continentalists. Now guided missiles are well developed. Installed on shore, they can hit any target & there is no need to build a big navy.” https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Strategic-Seapower-Modernization-International/dp/0804728046
In March 2007, I testified b/f @USCC_GOV: “China is…thought to be in the process of developing anti-ship homing warheads for its ballistic missiles, which is a very worrisome development…If they work, they would be extremely difficult to defend against.” http://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Dr.-Andrew-S.-Erickson_Testimony_USCC_PLA-Modernization_20070329.pdf
Several yrs of intense #OpenSource #research culminated in my 2013 book, #Chinese #AntiShip #Ballistic #Missile ( #ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories & Strategic Implications.
https://jamestown.org/program/how-china-got-there-first-beijings-unique-path-to-asbm-development-and-deployment/#.UbJLn8ptY2o
https://www.andrewerickson.com/2013/05/chinese-anti-ship-ballistic-missile-development-drivers-trajectories-and-strategic-implications/
https://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Anti-Ship-Ballistic-Missile-Development/dp/0983084262/ref=la_B001JP451A_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1410270524&sr=1-3
http://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Chinese-Anti-Ship-Ballistic-Missile-Development_Book_Jamestown_2013.pdf
https://jamestown.org/program/how-china-got-there-first-beijings-unique-path-to-asbm-development-and-deployment/#.UbJLn8ptY2o
https://www.andrewerickson.com/2013/05/chinese-anti-ship-ballistic-missile-development-drivers-trajectories-and-strategic-implications/
https://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Anti-Ship-Ballistic-Missile-Development/dp/0983084262/ref=la_B001JP451A_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1410270524&sr=1-3
http://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Chinese-Anti-Ship-Ballistic-Missile-Development_Book_Jamestown_2013.pdf
Still, in @DeptofDefense's 2020 #China report, this hit me: “The PLA has fielded approximately 200 IRBM launchers & >200 missiles.” Single most important sentence in best-written report to Congress yet in the 20 yrs the Pentagon's been issuing them, IMHO.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/breaking-down-pentagons-2020-china-military-power-report-quest-pla-parity-168201
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/breaking-down-pentagons-2020-china-military-power-report-quest-pla-parity-168201
Reported ranges for systems currently in #PLARF inventory suggest that these 200 #IRBMs are #DF26s, incl. some # of the #DF26B #ASBM variant.
DF-26’s dominance of China’s arsenal w/in that set of op-important range parameters suggests great confidence in this particular missile.
DF-26’s dominance of China’s arsenal w/in that set of op-important range parameters suggests great confidence in this particular missile.
Two strong indicators of great #PRC confidence in #DF26 #IRBM:
(1) extraordinarily fast production & deployment in high numbers of a modern weapon system, &
(2) no apparent need to hedge with multiple missile types with broadly overlapping capabilities. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas-df-21d-and-df-26b-asbms-is-the-u-s-military-ready/
(1) extraordinarily fast production & deployment in high numbers of a modern weapon system, &
(2) no apparent need to hedge with multiple missile types with broadly overlapping capabilities. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas-df-21d-and-df-26b-asbms-is-the-u-s-military-ready/
With its recent ASBM tests, reportedly vs moving targets, PRC seeks to demonstrate a maturing capability & enhance deterrence.
It seeks to overawe audiences limited in access to technical details & limited in understanding of basic technical principles. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3109809/chinas-aircraft-carrier-killer-missiles-successfully-hit-target
It seeks to overawe audiences limited in access to technical details & limited in understanding of basic technical principles. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3109809/chinas-aircraft-carrier-killer-missiles-successfully-hit-target
#PRC #ASBM's are a reality. #PLARF's already a force to be reckoned w/: https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-CJB-16361.
But, ON TOP OF THAT, Beijing seeks deference it hasn't earned operationally.
#BottomLine: However sophisticated & successful, recent tests = but 1 element in a far greater equation.
But, ON TOP OF THAT, Beijing seeks deference it hasn't earned operationally.
#BottomLine: However sophisticated & successful, recent tests = but 1 element in a far greater equation.
#ASBMs' effectiveness in practice hinges on comprehensive recon- #targeting architecture.
As last 4 #Zhuhai #Airshows I attended showed me, #China's clearly working diligently to develop such.
Remains a work in progress that hasn't been validated concretely in critical respects.
As last 4 #Zhuhai #Airshows I attended showed me, #China's clearly working diligently to develop such.
Remains a work in progress that hasn't been validated concretely in critical respects.
Moreover, growing US #countermeasures make this at least a 2-sided contest.
@USNavy's taken this threat very seriously; both in terms of hard kill & soft kill systems.
There's certainly more work to be done, but America is pacing the threat with manifold potent countermeasures.
@USNavy's taken this threat very seriously; both in terms of hard kill & soft kill systems.
There's certainly more work to be done, but America is pacing the threat with manifold potent countermeasures.
Soviet Chief of the General Staff Nikolai #Ogarkov termed this struggle of opposites the “dialectic of negation in military affairs.” In American parlance, “The enemy gets a vote.” American military “votes” thus far include #Aegis #BallisticMissile #Defense, #StandardMissile-6...
... & #Electronic #Warfare systems w/ the potential to confuse incoming #ASBMs w/ #false #targets that—proportionately speaking—could already far exceed the 355+ #ship force that @USNavy is planning to build.
As well it should—but that's another topic... https://www.19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas-df-21d-and-df-26b-asbms-is-the-u-s-military-ready/
As well it should—but that's another topic... https://www.19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas-df-21d-and-df-26b-asbms-is-the-u-s-military-ready/
