It’s painful to point this out but it needs to be said in light of the increasing number of #COVID19 cases. In the beginning we observed a wide range in the case fatality rate, as wide as 2-25%. Indeed, back in April the expected mortality was higher then even one month ago

for the past few months the mortality has stagnated around 2-3%. Many ask why, many use this as ‘evidence’ that this is all overblown. It is not. What we were initially seeing was the result of more testing. In the beginning our testing capacity could only capture the most severe

cases but in the late spring/summer months we were able to get testing sites up and start testing more asymptomatic cases. This means the denominator of the number of people who have covid grew, resulting in a lower proportion of fatal cases within the population. But...

that’s not the only reason. We, and when I say we I really mean your wonderful healthcare providers, nurses, and those on the frontlines got better at treating #COVID19. We made incredible advances in using ECMO, we learned what treatments could potentially make a difference.

and while treatment options specifically for covid remain limited (approved drugs: remedesvir and bamlanivimab) providers and researchers have indeed helped to combat mortality from covid. But here’s the caveat: we are no longer where we were in the summer. In the summer

our numbers were much lower, helped along by our earlier measures to #FlattenTheCurve and by sunshine, people were less fatigued and our numbers now are not what they are now. They are far far worse. While we move back indoors remember that a lot of the ability to provide

living saving care depends on you actually being able to get it. As hospitals hit capacity, all the lengths your providers have gone through to find new ways to help patients recover won’t even be a possibility if you can’t get in the door. Hospitals are already at or

approaching capacity. When we talk about crowding and lack of beds it also means other resources are so strained that the so to speak ideal conditions for treatment become a distant memory. But beds is a physical metric so let me breakdown further what no beds means.

1. No space, no where to put you. Imagine needing treatment and being turned away
2. No devices or meds
AND most critical

Not enough providers. Your hospital cannot staff nearly doctors to handle the incoming cases even before you account for how many of them may also

end up sick. We’ve already lost so many healthcare professionals. Colleagues who had to battle covid for patients to watch their colleagues lose the battle themselves. Your providers are stressed and they will likely never be the same.

So please, please before you fall into some false sense of comfort know everything is not ok and requires your continued diligence and care. If you get covid you could be someone who needs help and you may not be able to get it. Wear you mask. Stay home.

Maybe begging isn’t a scientific look we are all human. Save your fellow humans from grief. Save yourself from losing a loved one.