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1/ If you weren’t interested in a game console before, the new consoles have given you few reasons to be interested now. The launch of the ninth console generation came in with a with a whimper, the first time a next-gen launched with no killer titles https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-05/xbox-series-x-review-future-of-video-games-not-quite-here-yet
2/ The history of game consoles was a history of technical progress leading to new content designs. 8bit to 16bit opened up new types of game experiences, like high-speed fighting games. The CD-ROM enabled games to feel like movies, e.g. FF7, MGS.
3/ DVDs and Bluray furthered that trend, making each generation feel fundamentally different than before and giving you a sense of progress. By the 8th generation, attempts to expand via Kinect and VR largely fell flat. Consoles doubled down on what they knew sold.
4/ This generation didn’t change by design. Reviews praise the quick loading times, not something you needed a console for. A decent PC could accomplish the same years back. https://www.vulture.com/article/playstation-5-ps5-review.html
5/ So the console has changed from being a herald of technological progress to a subsidized PC box for your television, satisfying the same itch for the same group of people. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/11/xbox-series-x-s-review-beautiful-powerful-but-whatcha-gonna-play/
6/ Showcases for the new consoles were titles you could play elsewhere; in fact the ability to play on older consoles was a feature, not a bug. https://kotaku.com/why-would-i-buy-a-ps5-now-if-its-best-games-are-coming-1845089796?utm_campaign=Kotaku&utm_content=1600355491&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=twitter
7/ This trend is going to continue because the consoles themselves, to ease development, have become more similar to PCs, which already iterate at a faster cycle, meaning you’re starting each race behind. https://venturebeat.com/2020/09/01/nvidias-rtx-3080-is-more-exciting-than-playstation-5-or-xbox-series-x/
8/ Take a look at various screenshots of Twitch’s top streams over the course of console launch week. The top titles mostly look like the rest of 2020, and even the new titles may not necessarily be played on a next gen console.
9/ Nintendo recognized this years back, which is why they focused not on the technical prowess but on convenience and content. The best monetizing titles of 2020 don't have cutting edge graphics. Minecraft, Roblox, Fortnite, Among Us, Fall Guys. Cutting edge graphics is a niche.
10/ Instead, technical progress for games is likely going to come from the cloud rather than consoles. There’ll be two flavors of innovation: local rendering+compute (see Flight Sim) and cloud streaming. For the former, see https://www.techradar.com/news/microsoft-flight-simulator-2020-finally-realizes-the-true-next-generation-potential-of-azure-cloud-computing-in-pc-gaming
11/ For cloud streaming, I argued this with @ballmatthew back in May, but I don’t think it’s going to look like traditional video games despite most people's mistaken perspective on what cloud gaming should be. https://www.matthewball.vc/all/cloudmiles
12/ Player focused games are going to still be best locally rendered. Cloud streaming will instead be a new flavor of entertainment, Massive Interactive Live Events or MILEs. It’s this new entertainment format that will pull in new audiences, rather than traditional games.
13/ In a video game it is your journey. You are the protagonist, you have agency. In MILEs, this is different. The community determines the path of the journey. The community has agency, and the characters may also have agency. It will look like a mix of television and games.
14/ This is not a replacement for consoles. The failure of cloud gaming to displace the consoles despite, at this point, being ubiquitously available with similar content to consoles proves that demand for cheap, high quality gaming is going to continue. https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/10/21558820/youtube-premium-subscribers-free-stadia-premiere-edition-bundle-deals
15/ The word "cheap" may not make sense given the price tags of the consoles, but they’re being sold at a loss. You don’t get mid-spec PC gaming for $500, but that’s what the consoles are promising. https://comicbook.com/gaming/news/microsoft-selling-xbox-series-x-series-s-at-loss/
16/ Consoles are a known business that’s reached a comfy plane. Disruption is coming in terms of business model via gamepass, but doesn't change the audience.
The technologies behind games, applied to new formats, are what are going to continue to expand the market and audience.
The technologies behind games, applied to new formats, are what are going to continue to expand the market and audience.
