Short Thread:
#Ethiopia has 10 regions & 2 city admins (within its ill designed federation). Tigray, led by TPLF, w/c had ruled Ethiopia for 28 yrs, is the only 1 that has been undermining a federation that it actually designed. So, what is the underlying cause of the conflict?

Major underlying causes
- TPLF held a regional election defying the federal constitution.
- TPLF used proxies to incite ethnic violence.
- Prevented mov’t of the army across the region while also showing defiance to needed state-federal cooperation in the delivery of services.

Now, the Immediate Cause:
- The TPLF instructed its militia & special police forces to attack Ethiopian National Defense Forces’ Northern Command. Massacred unsuspecting soldiers. Robed military’s arsenal.
- Hence, out of any options, PM Abiy Ahmed declared a counter-offensive.

Sadly, the conflict is now between a professional Ethiopian army a local gov’t rebellion that doesn’t abide by any laws of war. The 1st example for that was that as TPLF militia retreated from a town, MaiCadra, it massacred innocent 100s. See report. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/11/ethiopia-investigation-reveals-evidence-that-scores-of-civilians-were-killed-in-massacre-in-tigray-state/

Can this go regional? No indication but speculations. #Eritrea & #Sudan, even Kenya (far from conflict) have closed borders.
But TPLF desires to internationalize the conflict. Thus, it attacked Eritrea with rockets. Sadly for rebels, Eritrea doesn’t seem interested to interfere.

Rebellions in Ethiopia’s contemporary history were common. But never in the country’s modern history has it experienced an attack against its central government by one of its local governments. It’s like Texas (member of the Union in the US) waging war against Washington DC. End.