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Here's an update ahead of the Brexit negotiations resuming in Brussels:
1/ The main obstacles remain fisheries, the level playing field and governance. The big sticking point has shifted to the so-called evolution or "ratchet" clauses in the non-regression provisions, ie that both sides evolve their standards in tandem over time...
2/ In particular the UK is resisting the ability for either side to retaliate if they depart from the level playing field. The fact that the "baseline" remains the standards both sides operate on Jan 1 - ie, EU-level standards, also remains an issue for London.
3/ Elsewhere, jointly drafted text on the non-contentious areas has been largely provisionally agreed, although with a lot of [square brackets] - denoting the fact that nothing is agreed till everything is agreed
4/ On state aid, the landing zone remains Michel Barnier's tool box of four elements: high level principles, an independent UK enforcement authority, a dispute settlement mechanism, and autonomous (ie swift) retaliatory measures while arbitration is ongoing
5/ It's understood quite a few drafts have changed hands on this area, but no breakthrough yet. On fisheries, I'm told that both sides remain "miles apart".
6/ On the link btwn fish & the UK enjoying access to the EU energy market, the EU message has been (roughly): you want to deny EU fleets access to British waters, yet we are offering you lucrative access to the EU energy market which is worth more than the fish in your waters
7/ Few diplomats believe Cummings' departure from Number 10 will make that much difference - maybe a little on the state aid issue.
8/ There had been hopes last weekend that if there was progress this week then Michel Barnier would brief EU ambassadors today [Sun 15th] to outline the state of play, but by mid-week that "went out the window".
9/ There is some talk of such a meeting happening on Wednesday this week - but nothing confirmed. Likewise there is talk of another Barnier briefing next Sunday. Either way, member states are wanting to know what is going on and what they will have to sign up to.
10/ That is why time is getting very tight and that is making everyone nervous. The treaty is so far running to some 600 pages, including annexes (compared to the EU's original draft of 430 pages). That's a lot of dense legal text for capitals to process, and for MEPs to digest
11/ MEPs need to run the treaty through at least three committees before they vote in plenary session on December 16. They will not be happy if the time to run these processes gets more and more compressed.
12/ The other question is whether the treaty will be "EU only" or "mixed". For the uninitiated, EU only means it deals with competences which are exclusively EU, and that means that once the European Council and the European Parliament approve it, it's all ratified
13/ If it's "mixed" it touches upon both national and EU competences. Then it has to be ratified by every national parliament (and some regional ones as well). Aviation is not an exclusive EU competence, and some member states have big interests there.
14/ Ultimately it will be a political decision taken by member states (via the General Affairs Council) if and when a deal is done. If it's mixed it could take up to two years for the treaty to be ratified.
15/ Parts of the treaty could be applied provisionally on Jan 1, but only the exclusive EU competence parts. Provisional application is not "innocent". One can imagine the link between "provisional" and the UK Internal Market Bill, for example
16/ EU leaders are meeting by video link on Thurs, but any suggestion that this is a deadline is dismissed out of hand. EU leaders do not negotiate over video link, although they may get a briefing from Barnier/Ursula von der Leyen on the state of play
17/ If there is good progress this week and there are only a few outstanding sticking points, then a further Boris Johnson/Von der Leyen phone call could be in the works.
18/ But time really will be running out by the end of next week. Diplomats say early the following week is really the last cut off. A 600 page treaty has to be legally scrubbed and translated into 23 official languages.
