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THREAD on Ethiopia & the region
#Ethiopia's PM continues to snub regional, African & international efforts to mediate ongoing #EthiopianCivilWar. His gov't insists this is a clear, quick & achievable law enforcement operation. This could not be more wrong & disastrous.
#Ethiopia's PM continues to snub regional, African & international efforts to mediate ongoing #EthiopianCivilWar. His gov't insists this is a clear, quick & achievable law enforcement operation. This could not be more wrong & disastrous.
Conceptually, if police are unable to enforce law & order, or law enforcement demands full might of entire national defense forces, you are knee deep in civil war – irrespective what you call it. When neighboring country ( #Eritrea) is involved, you have a regional conflagration.
Substantively, dev'ts on ground show it’ll neither be quick nor achievable without incalculable harm on innocent people & the political economy. Incapable of withstanding TPLF counter-attacks, federal troops are relying on #Eritrea/n artillery cover & increasingly combat too.
#Tigray has been giving up land to gain time & quickly retaking the land = net outcome being time gained. It could take months before fed. gov’t can procure sufficient weaponry & train enough fighting force (with requisite camaraderie, zeal & experience) to overwhelm #Tigrayans.
Meantime, #Tigray could face sever logistical shortages (even with possible #Sudan corridor), worsening precarity of civilian population and refugees. If this continues, world should brace for a humanitarian crisis of the 1980s magnitude. But for heaven's sake, WHY!?
My brother @AbiyAhmedAli, WHY all this under your watch?! Listen to a brother who wants you to succeed & Ethiopia to be at peace with itself: whatever the merit of your argument, your position becomes ultimately untenable when you brush off calls for peace.
At least be open to receiving African elderly leaders – they bring a wealth of experience and foresight that could help you break the impasse you feel TPLF has put in. Don't fall for paid lobbyists' goading to stay z course - they are paid in advance regardless outcome for you.
