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It’s municipal elxn day in Bosnia and Herzegovina today - amid worsening pandemic conditions. I expect no major upsets, strong showing by the nationalist oligarchy, low turnout. Reports of voting issues/long lines in Banja Luka already tho. More soon. https://www.klix.ba/clanak/201115021
Independent elxns observers have complained of being denied access to a number of voting sites, the majority of which appear to be in Doboj (RS entity); opposition in the area already protesting, alleging fraud. https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/bih-lokalni-izbori-2020/30950915.html
As of 11AM local time, the turnout is 14.88%, w/ handful of small voting precincts reporting no votes at all. Pres. Komsic notes low turnout will be an issue. Bad numbers even by Bosnian standards. https://www.klix.ba/clanak/201115053
As of 4PM local time, the turnout across BiH is 38%. It’s looking plausible that we’ll see below 50% turnout on the day. That, as always, will advantage the ruling nationalist regimes. https://www.klix.ba/clanak/201115091
Give a follow to @ImerM1 who is mapping turnout across the country. So far it appears E. Herzegovina is seeing cluster of highest rates, while W & NW BiH are quite low. Mostar votes separately in December. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4357791/
The polls in Bosnia and Herzegovina have now closed. We won’t know any results for a few hours but as always Florida will be close.
Some early results making the rounds on social media but these are informal and early. As expected, strong showing by SDA in most of FBiH but the Sarajevo municipalities appear considerably more competitive. Wait and see.
Following complaints of irregularities in Doboj, the SDS opposition bloc is calling for the elxns there to be invalidated. Meanwhile, the SDA candidate mayor of Travnik passed away from a lung infection today. Not yet clear what’s going to happen w/ the elxns in that city.
As noted, left-liberal parties posting strong results in Sarajevo’s Centar and Ilidža municipalities - two big ones - party activists claiming they expect wins elsewhere too. These early results via CNN affiliate @N1infoSA. https://twitter.com/adisa_imamovic/status/1328056597319389193
One the bizarre and disturbing things about early elxn results in Bosnia is that they almost come from the SDA party HQ. That’s become completely normalized in media reporting but it’s anything but normal democratic practice.
Convicted war criminal Fikret Abdic leads in Velika Kladusa in NW Bosnia. During the war, he ran a breakaway para-state supported by Karadzic’s VRS, then served a lengthy sentence for war crimes in Croatia. https://twitter.com/editagorinjac/status/1328063469325783046
Serb nationalists appear convinced that they’ve won another term in Srebrenica - celebrating a/ flags, sirens - but the returnee coalition is suggesting mail-in ballots may yet swing the final result. https://twitter.com/arduanapribinja/status/1328065888638144513
The opposition coalition in the RS entity says they expect to win Banja Luka, along w/ a number of other municipalities in that entity. That would be a major shock re: BL, so I would very much take that claim w/ a grain of salt. https://www.klix.ba/clanak/201115115
A trickle of additional results all appear to be suggesting that the SDA is suffering significant losses across Sarajevo. It appears the party is being punished for its pointless toppling of the reform coalition at the cantonal level. Positive & encouraging, IMO.
This is significant: the SDA itself is acknowledging that the numbers are looking bad for them across Sarajevo, and they’re themselves chalking it up to “troubles” at the cantonal level. A huge blow to Izetbegovic’s legitimacy — no way to spin this. https://www.klix.ba/clanak/201115129
And strong indications that the opposition has, in fact, won in Banja Luka. Don’t expect the SNSD to concede but if true: wow. Losses for SDA & SNSD in Sarajevo & BL. That’s a veritable political earthquake by Bosnian standards.
OK, wow. The HDZ appears to have lost in Tomislavgrad, in the deepest heartland of the party’s Croat nationalist base. I expected some of the losses for the SDA in Sarajevo but right now there seems to be a wholesale repudiation of the ruling establishment in BiH. Will it last?! https://twitter.com/martinamlinare1/status/1328075137476911109
Srđan Mandić of the liberal Our Party is the new mayor of Sarajevo Centar. Big win for this still small party. And Sarajevo once again showing it is willing and determined to resist ethnic homogeneity. Healthy for the capital, healthy for all of BiH. https://www.klix.ba/clanak/201115116
Srebrenica’s incumbent Serb nationalist mayor has declared victory but activists in the returnee community are insistent that the mail in ballots will swing this symbolically critical municipality. We may not know anything for sure for a few more days though.
Goražde’s new SDP mayor: Ernest Imamović. Finally an excuse for an Oscar Wilde gif.
I’ll have a separate thread analyzing the results later, for now these are just results and first impressions. Thanks to everyone who has not yet unfollowed. Nice to know so many are willing to tolerate discussion of Bosnian local politics.
I’ll leave the data folks like @ImerM1 to crunch the actual numbers but my qualitative sense is there’s so many Imamović’s in Bosnian politics that if they formed their own party, they’d be unstoppable.
How reform voters in Sarajevo are feeling about tonight’s apparent breakthroughs by the opposition coalition. Truly, the SDA is being beaten like a drum. https://twitter.com/saneldlc/status/1328090854121213954
Izetbegovic acknowledges the SDA has lost in Sarajevo but “won in BiH”. He once famously bragged that Sarajevo was worth more than most other municipalities put together. This a major blow to the party & his iron grip on it. Expect more defections from its ranks to now follow. https://twitter.com/adisa_imamovic/status/1328092447667343362
My understanding is that citizens of Travnik have elected, literally, a dead man. The SDA candidate appears to have won but he passed away earlier in the day. We’ll see how the Elxns Commission decides to proceed from here. Morbid story, either way.
Another major upset: the RS opposition has captured Bijeljina after 15 yr rule by the SNSD. Dodik has lost the two most significant municipalities in the RS entity tonight, it seems. An omen of things to come in 2022? https://www.klix.ba/clanak/201115146
Speak of the Devil, Dodik has acknowledged his loss party’s loss in Banja Luka. An absolutely massive blow to the secessionist strongman. A real crisis of legitimacy will follow, one expects. He no longer seems invincible. https://twitter.com/alexandart/status/1328096546106331136
Stanivukovic, the new mayor of BL, is a right-populist nationalist but vociferously opposed to Dodik, and has made his name in shouting matches in the RS assembly vs the SNSD leader. There’s no question that this is a huge blow to Dodik’s standing. He’s lost the entity seat.
How concerned is Dodik over the loss of Banja Luka? He’s announced he’s personally taking over the leadership of the SNSD party HQ in the city. That’s how concerned. https://twitter.com/snsddodik/status/1328100568464838656
Visualization of the preliminary results in Bosnia and Herzegovina tonight, via @N1infoSA. The breakthroughs by the opposition in both entities already clear: Četvortka, SDP, POMAK et al, SDS-PDP & PDP.
Ahead of the 2018 elxns, I argued the SDA had lost so much support among rank & file members thx to Izetbegovic’s patrimonial rule that the party would be battered at the polls. That didn’t happen in 2018 but it appears the case in 2020. https://balkaninsight.com/2018/03/29/the-sda-s-collapse-is-good-for-bosnia-03-28-2018/
Additional results coming in via @N1infoSA. You can already see some significant dilution vs. the 2016 municipal elxns when it comes to the nationalist SDA-HDZ-SNSD triumvirate. Small but important changes for Bosnia’s democratic progress.
The SDA’s loss of Jablanica is especially striking. Their base has always been the “lamb roast electorate”, for which Jablanica is well known. And they’ve lost even here. More of a bellwether than Sarajevo, IMO.
