Overnight 2 rockets fired from #Gaza at #Israel. A year ago last week, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commander Baha Abu al-Atta was assassinated – setting off 2 day escalation.

It was one of most important events in recent *Israeli* political history. This is why <THREAD> 1/

2/ Context: September 2019 Israel holds 2nd straight elex. Netanyahu loses badly & can’t form coalition govt. Mandate to form govt passes to Gantz end of October

It’s the first time in a decade that someone other than Netanyahu tasked w forming a govt

3/ Not easy path for Gantz to form a coalition despite holding 65-55 seat advantage in pro-Bibi/anti-Bibi blocs, and winning 1 more seat than Likud.

But there is 1 clear (yet difficult) option: minority govt seated w the votes of Arab-Israeli political parties (Joint List)

4/ Lot to recommend this option: Wouldn’t need votes from more radical Arab faction (Balad); may not even need votes from rightwing anti-Bibi MKs (eg Hendel, Hauser).

This scares Bibi. There is a chance he is about to be toppled.

5/ In public speech on evening of Nov 11 2019, Bibi calls minority govt w Arab support “crazy idea” & “slap in face to IDF”. Bibi also recalls 2014 Gaza war.

*1 day later* IDF assassinates Abu al-Ata. Minority govt option buried amidst 2 day escalation. https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/politics/1573488600-netanyahu-urges-gantz-to-forego-crazy-idea-of-minority-gov-t-with-odeh-tibi

6/ Clearly Netanyahu knew plans for operation were already in place. IDF had been tracking Abu al-Ata for months. So why that particular timing? Security echelon still maintain purely tactical reasons, no politics behind it. IDF & Shin Bet chiefs appear w Bibi in public. Fine.

7/ But also undeniable that (risk-averse) Bibi green-lit the op despite risk of major escalation. Gantz held mandate to form govt, numbers were against Bibi, minority govt a real option.

All these neutralized along w Baha Abu al-Ata. Bibi lives to force/fight a 3rd elex. FIN.