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Lots of people saying that the Government should now revert to a pre-Brexit (or even 2012 London) form of conservatism. I defy anyone to seriously study the party's 2019 electoral coalition and map, their voters values and politics, and maintain that that is a majority strategy.
The last election was premised on a view, arrived at through hard data and proven by the result, that there's been a realignment in the electorate that both opened up new voters/areas to the Tories and - crucially - closed some off to them. No data yet to suggest that's changed.
Some stats:
- Tory 2019 gains have on average 5% lower earnings than Labour seats
- Tories won a majority of
C2 voters and a plurality of DEs.
- The average Tory 2019 gain was the 177th most deprived seat in the country, up from 470th among the 2017 party.
- Tory 2019 gains have on average 5% lower earnings than Labour seats
- Tories won a majority of
C2 voters and a plurality of DEs.
- The average Tory 2019 gain was the 177th most deprived seat in the country, up from 470th among the 2017 party.
This doesn't mean a change in approach isn't needed (it is) or that only one person can understand those voters (obv. untrue). But the Government will need to deliver for its new coalition - a true "One Nation" strategy - or be squeezed between two stalls, and lose, in 2024.
Some reading to understand the structural shifts in the UK electorate and how the centre right might respond:
Onward (2019), The Politics of Belonging
Onward (2020), Realignment
The Twitter feed of @JamesKanag
The books of @NJ_Timothy, @David_Goodhart and @DJSkelton.
Onward (2019), The Politics of Belonging
Onward (2020), Realignment
The Twitter feed of @JamesKanag
The books of @NJ_Timothy, @David_Goodhart and @DJSkelton.
