Read on Twitter
Why does Trumpism still maintain such a hold on the Republican Party? The key is to recognize that Republican senators' "enabling" of Trump is a symptom, not a cause. It's a symptom of a GOP base, that, by and large, loves Trumpism. 1/
It's the voters' will, not fear of Trump as such, that's driving the institutional GOP's behavior: https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1326231934788366336 2/
@BrendanBuck put it well in June: “Members of Congress are not afraid of Trump; they are afraid of their voters and constituents. As long as he has a stranglehold on them and is able to communicate directly with them, this is not going to change.” https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-12/republican-officials-fear-trump 3/
That's why, contrary to some takes I've seen, it's not as simple as politicians needing to find the "courage" to rebuke Trump. Often, doing so would "completely immolate their careers" while having little effect on voters' views. Trumpism would survive. 4/ https://frenchpress.thedispatch.com/p/dump-trump-but-dont-burn-down-the
Example: In '16, Mitt Romney harshly criticized Trump. He continued doing so as a senator, & recently voted to impeach the President. Romney was the party's previous presidential nominee. If even *his* words could barely make a dent in Trump's support, what politician's could? 5/
So if a lot of voters don't really listen to most politicians, who *do* they listen to? Conservative media (including both traditional & social media). @DavidAFrench had an excellent (and sobering) piece for @TIME recently: https://time.com/5911619/right-wing-media-trumps-conspiracies/ 6/
This is the key portion of French's article, in which he notes what I mentioned above (that establishment GOP politicians don't have much influence with the base): 7/
The key -- and a big part of the reason that congressional Republicans are treating Trump the same now as before the election -- is that "conservative media is still dominated by the same personalities and the same outlets," and they are still boosting Trumpism: 8/
It's hard to foresee that changing anytime soon. Many Republicans will likely continue to be fed a diet of "Joe Biden is an illegitimate President because he won by voter fraud," and other such things. Trump will become a martyr, unjustly taken down by a Deep State conspiracy. 9/
To really get a sense of how far down the rabbit-hole a lot of folks are, consider this recent tweet (from a very prominent right-wing figure!). And look at the first replies. Incredibly disheartening stuff. Mitch McConnell is insufficiently supportive of Trump?! 10/
Ironically, that sort of stuff may be one tiny reason for hope for those who want to see the GOP go in a different direction. Politicians who've been appeasing Trump for 4 years may realize that what they do will never be enough--they will *always* be called disloyal & weak. 11/
They might decide it's in their interest to try to steer the party away from Trump--particularly if they have presidential ambitions & have been patiently waiting. Are Rubio+Cruz really prepared to allow Trump to run in '24 without putting up a fight? https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1325857645153161216 12/
I think @HeathMayo is absolutely right on this: https://twitter.com/HeathMayo/status/1327471416338505729 13/
GOP leaders who thought they could keep their heads down until Trumpism blew over should realize by now that this strategy has failed miserably: 14/ https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/1325873059551703040.
Now, you might ask -- what would be the point of GOP elected officials fighting Trump, given that, as I just noted, conservative media (and Trump's Twitter) is the primary influencer among conservatives today? Well, despite everything I've said, I do think leadership matters. 15/
I've come to believe over recent weeks that the right political leaders can make a big difference -- that while voters shape politicians' beliefs, politicians also shape voters' beliefs (and, in the case of presidential nominees, they shape a party's entire infrastructure). 16/
If you compare tweets from the GOP account in 2012 vs. today, you might get a sense of what I mean. My understanding is that many of today's GOP operatives are the same people who were there in 2012. Yet the party leader then was Romney; now it's Trump. Leaders matter. 17/
I often disagree w/ Stuart Stevens, but he had an insightful line recently: "[I]f Mitt Romney had won in 2012, I think he would’ve taken the party in a very different direction. So one conclusion I’ve reached is that leaders really matter. In the 1930s,..." 18/
"...why didn’t we become fascist? Probably because Roosevelt was president and not Lindbergh." 19/ https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/19/interview-stuart-stevens-republican-case-against-trump-397918
We see this phenomenon in the Democratic Party, too, where Joe Biden as party leader has, I believe, significantly moderated his party in at least some respects (and, incidentally, that is probably one of the things that helped him win this election). 20/
Now, this focus on the power of good leadership militates *somewhat* (not entirely) against my earlier hint that perhaps we should mostly absolve GOP politicians of blame for enabling Trump because, after all, that's often what most of their voters want. 21/
The relationship between GOP politicians & their voters is currently a mutually reinforcing feedback loop, fanned by media. But there does come a time when people in power should try to shake things up & display independence. Now may be that time, though they may not succeed. 22/
I've said it before, but if the party can go from Romney to Trump in 4 years, who knows what could happen in the next 4. At the same time, it's possible this is a Pandora's box situation, where opening the box is easy but putting the contents back in is virtually impossible. 23/
As former high-level GOP staffer @BrendanBuck said recently, "the populist side of the party has always existed," but "as a party, we've always just sort of tried to tamp that down or appease it." What was "bottled up" burst to the surface in 2016. 24/ https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/takeaway/segments/electoral-defeat-trump-future-gop
Again, leadership matters -- it's the difference between stuff getting tamped down vs. amplified. 25/
So could the right kind of leader change the party for the better? Maybe, & I think folks ought to try. Still, I'm doubtful that repair is possible in the short-term (i.e., the next decade), which is why I said yesterday that I'm pessimistic about the future of our politics. 26/
Because the GOP did well overall, there's unlikely to be much soul-searching. "Rubio ... expressed a view that had taken hold among conservatives — one that would seem to rule out any reflective, autopsy-style self-assessment of how [Trump] lost." 27/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/us/politics/republican-party-trump.html?smid=tw-share
Senator Romney was pretty clearly correct (as per usual) when he said that Trump is poised to retain a firm grip on their party: https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1325445353307598850 28/
Indeed, the President is apparently already forming plans to run in 2024, and create a special PAC to maintain influence: https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1325856347896819712, https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1326026892193968129 29/
A new type of leader could change things, as noted, but the prospects of someone different getting the chance to lead the party seem extremely doubtful given the current state of conservative media (see above). That will probably need to change for the party to change. 30/
Thus, in the short-term, I fear we are looking at legislative gridlock, ever-increasing polarization, conspiracy theories, & other harmful trends. I fear compromise may become even less possible, rather than more. 31/
@LarryHogan was quite right when he wrote that what we need from a Biden administration are "bipartisan, common-sense solutions." But I doubt the progressive left or Senate Republicans will have an appetite for that. 32/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-mandate-for-moderation-11604772177?mod=mhp
Particularly after Sen. Manchin's promises not to vote for court-packing or abolishing the filibuster, I think the nation might actually be better off with Dems winning the Georgia runoffs. That would hopefully give the GOP a bit of a needed shock. https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1325951672145883138?s=20 33/
Now, I'm really afraid of court-packing, so it'd probably be good for Republicans to win *one* of the 2 races to get to 51 seats (probably Perdue preferable, though not 100% certain). 34/
But more than that? I'm not sure they deserve it. Not right now. This is a deeply broken party, and I'm inclined to think it will remain that way for a long time to come -- though I'd love to be proven wrong, and I won't give up the sliver of hope alongside my pessimism. end/
