#Moldova: Few hours left before the cast of votes begins. This thread covers the voting day. Stay tuned to find out ‘who’ is going to win the elections and most importantly ‘how’(THREAD):

1) Here is a thread I tailored yesterday. It presents the developments between the first round (Nov. 1st) and the runoff (Nov. 15th). Get familiar with it to learn about the preconditions. https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1327518968903589889

2) On Saturday afternoon, one day before the voting, a court decision concluded that one electoral material shared by Dodon’s team has included defamatory info about Sandu. The Central Electoral Commission received a range of complaints from representatives of both candidates.

3) The voting has started. Already 2% (or ~ 77k) of the registered voters showed up within Moldova, and around 4k abroad.

4.The chances in this table will matter all day along. In the first round on Nov. 1st, the turnout was lower than in 2016. Parties & their candidates have mobilized the voters. Thus, voting in the second round should be at least as high as in 2016. Source: http://E-democracy.md 

5. Queueing voters abroad are reported in Romania, Germany, Israel, etc. The voters from Transnistria are also waiting in queues at the polling stations on the territory controlled by Chisinau. Not clear if there are cases of organized transportation of voters.

6. Maia Sandu voted and encouraged the voters to go and cast the vote.

7. At 9.00 (Chisinau time or 8.00 CET), more than 161k voted - ~4K from Transnistria and ~15k in diaspora.

8. The turnout at this moment in time is almost 50% higher than in the first round, and the presence in 2016. Mobilization has worked out. Unclear who is going to benefit the most out of that.

9. I’m almost in Frankfurt, but need to change some more transport means to get to the polling station. Friends warned me that the queues are huge.

10. The voting in the runoff by voters from Transnistria and diaspora is very dynamic. It’s highly probable that the presence for each of the category will be at least 50% higher than in the first round. (Source: http://E-democracy.md ).

11. The incumbent president Igor Dodon voted. His post-voting message: “I don’t want that Moldova turns into a geopolitical pawn”.

12. The hysteria about potential fraud (not just irregularities) is so high that anecdotal cases occur. A driving school next to polling station held classes outside (pandemic) with materials. A person called the police to inform of ballot falsification. Police dismissed it.

13. I have arrived to the polling stations in Frankfurt. It was moved from the consulate to a stadium. There are hundreds (surely 1k) in queues, like at a concert. The queue is moving more or less quickly. I arrived 5 min. ago and the queue after me has already > 20 people.

15. Around 20% of registered voters have showed. It’s only 11.30 (Chisinau)/12.30 (CET). The voting is much higher than in the first round.

16. At the polling station in Frankfurt, somebody brought Moldovan pop-traditional music. Nobody is trying to keep social distance, but the majority is wearing face masks.

17. By 11.00 o’clock (Chisinau time) the police registered about 20 incidents, including 2 attempts of road-blockage (against voters from Transnistria) and 4 cases of voters bussing. The local observers reported that the number of irregularities almost doubled in the run-off.

18. The Moldovans with whom I am standing in the queue in Frankfurt call others in Munich asking how they voted. The voting is organized much better than in the first round.

19. The voting in Frankfurt is massive. The electoral authorities ask the voters to go to other polling stations in Germany because the number of ballots is rapidly exhausting. Only 5k ballots were distributed. Not sure that I will manage to cast my vote. #MoldovaVote2020

20. An observer from CIS, Russian MP Artem Turov was called names (occupier, fascist etc.) at a polling station where are voting the citizens from Transnistria. The Moldovan MP Igor Grosu asked the Russian observer to leave and not provoke people. #MoldovaVote2020

21. Sandu’s team calls the voters to be vigilant because Dodon would spread lies about vote buying in the country and in diaspora.

22. I’m still queueing in Frankfurt (closer), people are getting angry. They believe the process can be bettered. Many of them are with kids under 10 years old. Some suspect that the authorities knew that more will vote and didn’t do anything to create better conditions.

23. Over two hours in the queue and finally approaching to the main gates of the stadium. But I believe that optimistically I can hope to vote in maybe one hour. More than 100k voted abroad, and overall more than 800k.

24. At almost 13.00 o’clock (CET), the turnout has stabilized at the level of 2015.

25. After 3 hours of queueing at the polling station in Frankfurt, I have finally voted. The ballots seem to be not enough because more people came to vote.

26. Several new cases of vote buying involving the citizens residing in Transnistria were reported by the observers. The voters would receive up to 50$ per vote.

27. At 13.30 (CET), more than 1 M voted or 34% of the registered voters.

28. The voting abroad surpassed the historical 150k. Until 14.40 o’clock (CET), more than 160k people have voted. Bear in mind that the absolute majority of the diaspora vote went to Sandu in the first round, and will probably to the same in the runoff.

29. More than 100 irregularities are investigated by police. Approx. 2/3 of them are about voter bussing and is related to the voters from the Transnistrian region.

30. The voting in the polling stations for voters from Transnistria and in the diaspora increased! Those residing in the breakaway region almost doubled compared to first round (14k). That’s the reason why there are many incidents related to vote bussing and road-blockage.

31. The Central Electoral Commission has informed that voting ballots will not be enough abroad. The provision of current Electoral Code, updated in 2019-2020, stipulates that only 5k ballots are allowed per polling station abroad. Arguments about premeditate actions don’t stand.

32. After I left the polling station in Frankfurt, German police communicated a bomb alert. When I left I saw hundreds/thousands queuing to vote. The German authorities will decide what to do further. This incident is definitely going to compromise the voting in remaining hours.

33. The activity of the polling station in Frankfurt was suspended for one hour. It will resume the voting exercise in 5 min. Not clear how many ballots are still available here. The pro-Sandu voters tell them to go to vote in Brussels or Strasbourg. This is difficult to do.

34. Almost 200k Moldovans abroad votes. This is a new record. I forecast that the number will overcome 250k. Dodon is in trouble, if voters at home don’t vote massively for his candidacy.

35. Pro-Sandu voters in Moldova are cheering up the diaspora to keep voting. While more tensions are seen at the some polling stations, where the voters residing in Transnistria are supposed to vote. The allegations of vite buying are flagged again and again.

36. Meanwhile, the Russian-speaking media in Moldova, Komsomliskaya Pravda, is promoting the idea of mass falsifications occurring at the Western polling stations - vote buying, voters bussing etc. This is absurd. I was in Frankfurt to vote and didn’t see anything of that.

37. The same Komsomolskaya Pravda writes that post-electoral protests are highly probable. Indeed, everything it is possible, but nothing that could remind #Belarus. It will depend who is the winning side. After knowing that, hypothesizing about protest potential makes sense.

38. Few hours are left. Until 17.00 (CET), 1.4 M people have voted. Abroad the vote reached 202k, and will increase because of the votes in US and Canada. The most active diaspora has been so far in France, Germany, UK and Italy (Source: Central Electoral Commission).

39. The candidate who came in third place in 1st round, Renato Usatii, is throwing fuel into the fire. He came up with a populist proposal to pay a charter to transport voting ballots to Germany. Such populist discourse is dangerous and can provoke unrest among voters in Germany.

40. It’s official, nobody can vote in Frankfurt. The ballots are over. I was among the lucky ones. Can’t imagine the disappointment and even rage of those who didn’t vote. The law has flaws. The Electoral Commission is just following it. PS. More than 1.5 million voted so far.

41. My criticism against electronic voting is getting validation. Several cyber attacks on electronic system of voting were just reported by the Central Commission. In the first round, the cyber attacks hit the mobile-telephone and online mailing of various officials.

42. Important feature of the voting in the diaspora is that ~50% are between 26 and 40 years old. These are economically active citizens who left the country temporarily or for good.

43. I am using my RU/EN Telegram channel, recently launched, to reflect the voting in Transnistria. https://t.me/dioniscenusa/37 

44. Fresh data about the turnout and the voting abroad and by the citizens from Transnistria. (Source: http://E-democracy.me )

45. Try to guess how many Moldovans voted in Russia. Approx. 10k came to vote. In the first round many voted for Usatii. This time Dodon was targeting them.