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In Baghdad life has returned to what it was before COVID and you would almost not know there even was a pandemic. Despite this, infection rates have not shot up according to official data which has got me thinking about something even more curious...
I was in Karbala on Thursday, hardly anyone had a mask on and the shrines area was super busy. Between 28 September and 8 October the shrine authorities recorded more than 14.5 MILLION visitors for the Arbaeen https://alkafeel.net/news/index?id=11717. This was an epic super spreader event but...
What should have led to nearly all of Iraq’s population catching COVID didn’t increase the case loads significantly. There are obvious thoughts on lack of testing, reliability of official data, low referrals, young population, etc but I still find the result remarkable.
Somehow, Iraq is surviving COVID without the high number of fatalities seen in other countries despite the poor health system and lack of social restrictions. I’m not making any scientific claims here, my only observation is that the situation could and should be worse but is not
Obviously I still strongly recommend social distancing, wearing a mask, using hand sanitiser frequently and all other official health advice on COVID. It isn’t over yet but I wonder what interesting data from this year so far can be gleaned from the pandemic in Iraq
With regards to the Arbaeen, more than 14.5 million people visited Karbala in 11 days, which when looking at the COVID fatality rate average in Iraq of 2% should have led to 290,000 deaths. This didn’t happen at all from what I can gather from official data. Miracle or curious?
I’ve seen reports about herd immunity and how the Iraq government has essentially given up on trying to prevent the spread of COVID. It might be possible, but whatever happens in the future I cannot see the public being prepared to enter lockdown again, no matter how bad it gets
