1. The time for dither, delay and denial has gone. The Prime Minister must now decide whether he actually wants a deal with the European Union or not.
2. Either way, because any deal is likely to be thin (although avoiding tariffs is crucial) all those promises - one of the easiest trade deals in human history, we hold all the cards, there will be no downside to Brexit only a considerable upside....
3. ....and the claim that we could get the exact same benefits - will finally be exposed for what they were. Completely hollow.
4. This is the first trade negotiation in British history in which the Government has gone into the talks knowing that it will come out with worse terms than what we have at the moment.
5. Firms know this. Week after week our select committee has heard how business will be made more costly, more difficult and more uncertain because of expensive duplication (eg chemicals registration), new red tape, the potential for border delays or simply lack of clarity.
6. Businesses also know how damaging no deal would be. Just ask lamb or beef farmers or carmakers or the the British Retail Consortium which has calculated that no deal tariffs would add £3.1bn a year to the cost of importing food and drink from the EU.
7. Ministers know it too even though they pretend no deal is a good outcome. They’ve done the calculations which show a loss of future GDP. At a time when we’re already facing an economic crisis because of Covid, why on earth would you want to impose no deal on top of that?
8. So what needs to happen in the very little time that remains? Both sides need to compromise. That’s how you get agreements. It cannot be impossible to find a way through on the level playing field or fisheries or how disputes will be resolved.
9. This is now all about political will. I think the vast majority of people in the country want a deal. So our message to the negotiators should be, keep going and please get an agreement.
10. I still think there will be one, but if it doesn’t happen then while, of course, the Prime Minister will blame the EU, the blunt truth is that he will have no-one to blame but himself.
You can follow @hilarybennmp.
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