1/ weekend update.

TL;DR: #Tesla will likely lag 19Q4 by a wide margin.

There have been 8 ships to Europe for ~28.2k in 19Q4 and 6.2k in opening inventory, so $TSLA could deliver a record 31.8k M3's.

This year they are at 6 ships with a 7th being loaded.

$TSLA $TSLAQ https://twitter.com/fly4dat/status/1324110677586432000

2/ There is time for 3 more ships, but they need 1 (maybe 2) more to APAC.

The China window of opportunity has pretty much closed, no ship from Shanghai could reach Europe in time.

So 9 ships tops, unless Tesla a) ships from the East or b) sends cars from Shanghai by train.

3/ Although it's possible that they ship again from the East, I find it unlikely this time. They would have had plenty of time to ship from SFO, and shipping from the East is costlier and involves more risk.

Similarly, shipping from China by train is quick but pricey (and new).

4/ If they truly end up with 9 ships, they could squeeze out 33.5k M3's (vs 31.8k in 19Q4), but the lowest # of cars they had left in inventory EOQ was 1.1k after 20Q2, after repairing lots of lemons and rejects, so the best I estimate they can do is 31.5k.

5/ However, I find 8 ships more likely. Cars are still not sold off, plenty of inventory available, although they obviously still have half of the Q for that.

If they do 8 ships only, 27k M3's delivered would be a good result. We'll see the # of ships in a week or so.

6/ Note that I estimate the European BEV market to grow by ~200% in Q4 YoY, so even a flat #Tesla # would be a disaster after a partial 2019 (deliveries have started in Feb in some countries, with some other markets, including big ones to start in 19Q3 only).

7/ It's interesting that, while $TSLA will have sent 7 ships to by ~Wed, only 5 of them are from SFO. An extra 3 went to APAC, so 8 ships total so far, while in 19Q4, SFO had 16 ships.

Either sales is booming in the US, or they are far from being supply-constrained.

$TSLAQ