The Sat update on England admissions and deaths, starting with a continued upswing in admissions. The 7 day MA is up 18% on the week, a week ago it was just 9%. This appears to be a national trend, and is broadly consistent with the infection trend recently reported by REACT. 1/4
Consequently our estimate of R continues to rise, and is now approaching 1.2, after falling close to 1.0 a week ago. Was the dip last week due to half term, or maybe the recent increase is a result of last minute activity in anticipation of the second lockdown? 2/4
The regional picture for admissions confirms an upswing everywhere in the last few days, even the NW which had been falling at around 10% per week. The four southerly regions all saw their highest 2nd wave day yet reported today, so this isn't just an issue for the north. 3/4
Reported deaths had three very high days during the week, followed by two slightly better days (although still trending upwards). The 7 day MA is up 20% on the week, at around 260. The uptick in admissions over the last week has yet to feed through to these numbers though. 4/4
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