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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Michael Conforto, OF
New York #Mets
27 years old (28 on 3/1/20)
Drafted: 2014, Round 1; Pick 10 (NYM)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
54 G
233 PA
202 AB
.322/.412/.515
9 HR
40 R
31 RBI
3 SB
.401 wOBA
157 wRC+
2.0 WAR
10.3 BB%
24.5 K%
54 G
233 PA
202 AB
.322/.412/.515
9 HR
40 R
31 RBI
3 SB
.401 wOBA
157 wRC+
2.0 WAR
10.3 BB%
24.5 K%
If you were around for my 2020 Player Breakdowns, this Conforto “breakout” did not surprise you.
However, the .322 batting average is something that has many analysts assuming that he may be a poor value in 2021.
So let’s pop the hood and examine what happened and why...
However, the .322 batting average is something that has many analysts assuming that he may be a poor value in 2021.
So let’s pop the hood and examine what happened and why...
From 2017-19, Conforto batted .257 w/ an .855 OPS, averaging 29 HR & 25 2B’s.
Good, not great.
But in 2017, he was on his way to a monster season (27 HR in 440 AB) before injuring his shoulder in AUG.
This caused him to undergo shoulder capsule surgery & miss a month of 2018.
Good, not great.
But in 2017, he was on his way to a monster season (27 HR in 440 AB) before injuring his shoulder in AUG.
This caused him to undergo shoulder capsule surgery & miss a month of 2018.
It took time for Conforto to get back to full strength & the recovery may have dampened the hype many once had.
That leads us to 2020.
Among qualified outfielders, he finished:
- 1st in LD%
- 3rd in AVG
- 4th in OBP
- 6th in wOBA
- 7th in wRC+
- 7th in fWAR
- 8th in OPS
That leads us to 2020.
Among qualified outfielders, he finished:
- 1st in LD%
- 3rd in AVG
- 4th in OBP
- 6th in wOBA
- 7th in wRC+
- 7th in fWAR
- 8th in OPS
One “red flag” for many analysts is another stat he led in:
BABIP
In fact, Conforto held a 16% point higher BABIP than the next hitter.
.412 Conforto
.396 Solano
Is this something you should worry about? Let’s take a look his batted ball profile & see what’s what.
BABIP
In fact, Conforto held a 16% point higher BABIP than the next hitter.
.412 Conforto
.396 Solano
Is this something you should worry about? Let’s take a look his batted ball profile & see what’s what.
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 30.3%
GB - 41.4%
FB - 28.3%
Pull - 32.4%
Middle - 39.3%
Opp - 28.3%
Hard Contact - 36.6%
Med Contact - 39.0%
Soft Contact - 14.5%
Exit Velocity - 88.4 mph
Max EV - 114.4 mph
Barrel % - 11.0
Launch Angle - 11.0°
sd(LA) - 26.6°
LD - 30.3%
GB - 41.4%
FB - 28.3%
Pull - 32.4%
Middle - 39.3%
Opp - 28.3%
Hard Contact - 36.6%
Med Contact - 39.0%
Soft Contact - 14.5%
Exit Velocity - 88.4 mph
Max EV - 114.4 mph
Barrel % - 11.0
Launch Angle - 11.0°
sd(LA) - 26.6°
Line drives are a good thing, & no one held a higher % than Conforto last season.
His Max EV was up over 2 mph from 2019 while his wOBAcon sat at an astounding .493 (.472 xwOBAcon)
Overall EV was held back by GB (88.4) but his EV on FBLD was 94.2.
His Max EV was up over 2 mph from 2019 while his wOBAcon sat at an astounding .493 (.472 xwOBAcon)
Overall EV was held back by GB (88.4) but his EV on FBLD was 94.2.
Conforto doesn’t hold a typical profile people look for in the Statcast era.
Middle of the road EV, low FB%, & a low Hard%.
Line drive hitters are a bit different. Instead you look for consistency in solid contact.
In fact, he has held the same sd(LA) for 3 straight seasons.
Middle of the road EV, low FB%, & a low Hard%.
Line drive hitters are a bit different. Instead you look for consistency in solid contact.
In fact, he has held the same sd(LA) for 3 straight seasons.
The power is there (HR/FB is around career norm), he simply achieves it through precision & accuracy.
Conforto minimizes weak contact & drives the ball at an ideal LA and EV in order to produce the best results.
Conforto minimizes weak contact & drives the ball at an ideal LA and EV in order to produce the best results.
Now let’s discuss the .322 batting avg (previous career high .279)
For this we are going to look at three things:
1.) Batted Ball Spray
2.) Performance vs LHP
3.) BABIP
Conforto dropped his Pull% from 41.2 to 32.4%, utilizing more of the field. That is quite the difference.
For this we are going to look at three things:
1.) Batted Ball Spray
2.) Performance vs LHP
3.) BABIP
Conforto dropped his Pull% from 41.2 to 32.4%, utilizing more of the field. That is quite the difference.
This is obviously important in terms of:
- Being a more balanced hitter
- Make better contact by “going with the pitch”
- Keep the defense guessing
In 2018 teams shifted 56.3% of the time (.319 wOBA)
In 2020 Conforto held a .423 wOBA vs the shift (50.6%)
- Being a more balanced hitter
- Make better contact by “going with the pitch”
- Keep the defense guessing
In 2018 teams shifted 56.3% of the time (.319 wOBA)
In 2020 Conforto held a .423 wOBA vs the shift (50.6%)
Drive the ball to all fields & the defense must respect that, leaving Conforto w/ a better opportunity for pull side base hits.
Which brings us to platoon splits.
Conforto vs LHP
2019:
.241/.316/.385
.144 ISO
.304 wOBA
90 wRC+
2020:
284/.384/.486
.203 ISO
.378 wOBA
142 wRC+
Which brings us to platoon splits.
Conforto vs LHP
2019:
.241/.316/.385
.144 ISO
.304 wOBA
90 wRC+
2020:
284/.384/.486
.203 ISO
.378 wOBA
142 wRC+
That’s right folks. Conforto, when given the opportunity, was able to improve (immensely) vs LHP.
So let’s talk about that BABIP.
Prior to 2020, Conforto finished w/ a BABIP higher than .300 once in his career (.328 in 2017).
A higher BABIP should have been expected w/ an increased LD%, but not .412
So an xBA of .284 vs a .322 batting avg is what we need to navigate.
Prior to 2020, Conforto finished w/ a BABIP higher than .300 once in his career (.328 in 2017).
A higher BABIP should have been expected w/ an increased LD%, but not .412
So an xBA of .284 vs a .322 batting avg is what we need to navigate.
How does xBA work?
Each comparable BBE based on EV, LA & Sprint Speed is given a hit probability.
But xBA normalizes BABIP & removes defense from the equation.
In other words, it measures “skill,” instead of accounting for variables a batter can’t control.
Each comparable BBE based on EV, LA & Sprint Speed is given a hit probability.
But xBA normalizes BABIP & removes defense from the equation.
In other words, it measures “skill,” instead of accounting for variables a batter can’t control.
So on one hand we see this .322 avg & in the other hand we have a .412 BABIP.
Using an xBA of .284 as a baseline, combined w/ Conforto’s increased skill, what batting avg should we expect w/ his likely new BABIP baseline?
Let’s investigate similar player performances...
Using an xBA of .284 as a baseline, combined w/ Conforto’s increased skill, what batting avg should we expect w/ his likely new BABIP baseline?
Let’s investigate similar player performances...
There is actually one player who in 2019, 2018, & 2016 held metrics similar to Conforto in the following areas:
- LD%
- HR/FB%
- Spray Chart
- EV
Remember we are looking for a batted ball profile & similar BABIP skills.
Any guesses?
- LD%
- HR/FB%
- Spray Chart
- EV
Remember we are looking for a batted ball profile & similar BABIP skills.
Any guesses?
That would be Freddie Freeman.
Last 3 years:
LD% - 32.3/27.5/31.1
HR/FB% - 14.9/23.6/19.7
Pull% - 43.1/40.5/37.3
Cent% - 31.1/30.9/33.3
Max EV - 109.6/112.0/109.3
Refresher on Conforto:
LD% - 30.3
HR/FB - 22.0
Pull% - 32.4
Cent% - 39.3
Max EV - 114.4
Last 3 years:
LD% - 32.3/27.5/31.1
HR/FB% - 14.9/23.6/19.7
Pull% - 43.1/40.5/37.3
Cent% - 31.1/30.9/33.3
Max EV - 109.6/112.0/109.3
Refresher on Conforto:
LD% - 30.3
HR/FB - 22.0
Pull% - 32.4
Cent% - 39.3
Max EV - 114.4
So, using this custom batted ball profile as a guide, we can attempt to predict Conforto’s “new” normal for BABIP.
Freeman’s BABIP over the last several seasons: .370, .335, .358, .318, .366
That gives us a healthy range, now we need a formula.
Freeman’s BABIP over the last several seasons: .370, .335, .358, .318, .366
That gives us a healthy range, now we need a formula.
If we take Conforto’s AB (202) & K% (24.5) we can deduce that he put 75% of balls in play (152).
This, however, does not account for HR when we tabulate avg, so we will add those in.
For example:
152 BIP X .350 (BABIP) = 53
53 + 9 (HR) = 62 Total
62/202 (AB) = .307
This, however, does not account for HR when we tabulate avg, so we will add those in.
For example:
152 BIP X .350 (BABIP) = 53
53 + 9 (HR) = 62 Total
62/202 (AB) = .307
So let’s see a few projections when we change Conforto’s BABIP:
.412 = .322 avg (out starting point)
.360 = .315 avg
.350 = .307 avg
.340 = .300 avg
.330 = .293 avg
.320 = .285 avg
.310 = .279 avg
.300 = .270 avg
...and there we have a healthy (rough) range of outcomes.
.412 = .322 avg (out starting point)
.360 = .315 avg
.350 = .307 avg
.340 = .300 avg
.330 = .293 avg
.320 = .285 avg
.310 = .279 avg
.300 = .270 avg
...and there we have a healthy (rough) range of outcomes.
This also assumes Conforto maintains the same batted ball profile going forward.
Which is not only possible, but there is room for overall improvement.
Although we can assume some things to even out over a 162-game pace.
For example, LD% typically normalizes after 600 BIP.
Which is not only possible, but there is room for overall improvement.
Although we can assume some things to even out over a 162-game pace.
For example, LD% typically normalizes after 600 BIP.
So one could assume Conforto’s .284 xBA seems reasonable (even though Steamer only projects .254, which assumes total regression across the board)
But given our data, we could easily see a new “normal” BABIP in the .320+ range
Last season’s performance hints at a new baseline
But given our data, we could easily see a new “normal” BABIP in the .320+ range
Last season’s performance hints at a new baseline
What to expect from Michael Conforto in 2021:
550 AB
.297/.387/.525
30 HR
104 R
101 RBI
7 SB
A new all-fields approach combined w/ the ability to hit LHP has turned a star into a superstar.
A modest .320 BABIP allows for the above projection. MC could end being a steal, again
550 AB
.297/.387/.525
30 HR
104 R
101 RBI
7 SB
A new all-fields approach combined w/ the ability to hit LHP has turned a star into a superstar.
A modest .320 BABIP allows for the above projection. MC could end being a steal, again
