Not sure anyone can be certain what the impact of Cummings' departure will have on the Brexit negotiations. Removes a hardliner from No 10 but also leaves him free to cry 'betrayal' if the PM compromises.

Worth asking, what'll be the PM's message if he hasn't got a deal? /1

In a no deal situation there'll be plenty of disruption (it'll be bad enough with a deal) & an immediate economic hit. Brexit will become a big issue & there'll be plenty of blame to be allocated. The old Remain/Leave divide will return (even if the names will be outdated) /2

Hard to see how the former Remainers will do anything other than blame Johnson - vindicating the view that Brexit (esp a no deal Brexit) was a bad idea. But one can see how Johnson could convince many 'Leavers' that the EU deserves the blame by being intransigent. /3

He could present himself as the doughty defender of British sovereignty, refusing to be bullied by the EU into giving them control over the UK. He'd dismiss his critics as being willing to surrender to the EU, 'taking their orders from Brussels' etc etc. /4

It'd be an extraordinarily disingenuous approach but has been pursued before with some success before. It'd antagonise half the country but might appeal to a fair number of the other half. Even as the country faced a crisis, one could see how 40% might support it. /5

But if that was going to be his strategy - and if we're going through the turmoil of no deal I don't see what alternative he would have - wouldn't he want Cummings & Cain by his side? They're good at that sort of stuff. /6

I'd welcome a strategy that was less combative - a return to a more conventional style of politics. But such a move would not be a coherent strategy if Boris Johnson also fails to agree a Brexit deal. In such circumstances, he'd need to adopt the old Vote Leave tactics. /7

In other words, trying to present yourself as a moderate, liberal internationalist whilst aggressively blaming the EU for a disastrous outcome to the Brexit talks ends up pleasing no one. /8

Does that mean that Boris Johnson is going to get a Brexit deal? I hope he does (a bad deal is better than no deal, to coin a phrase) but I don't know.
But if he doesn't get a deal, the sackings of Cummings & Cain would look incoherent & unstrategic. /END

PS Having read the fascinating account of the last few days by @ShippersUnbound, there doesn’t appear to be anything strategic or coherent about it.