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FUTURE OF ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN AFTER THE DEAL
On this thread I'll analyse a bit the situation after the peace deal sponsored by Russia between Armenia and Azerbaijan. (1/n)
On this thread I'll analyse a bit the situation after the peace deal sponsored by Russia between Armenia and Azerbaijan. (1/n)
This ceasefire agreement signed on 9 November 2020 changed drastically the previous situation in Nagono-Karabakh. Azerbaijan managed to recover all the border with Iran, some of south Karabakh, managing to conquer Shushi (10 km far from Stepanakert, the capital of NK) (2/n)
In the agreement Armenia (AR) accepted to give back Azerbaijan (AZ) the occupied districts (Kəlbəcər, Laçin and Ağdam) before December, keeping a corridor in Laçin. Azeri conquered territories were also confirmed (including south NK, Hadrut and Shushi) (3/n)
In the coming months (and years) AZ and AR will negotiate to put an end to the conflict. In this thread I'll focus on the motivations of each part in that negotiation and their assets (4/n)
AZERBAIJAN. They have achieved most of their goals: consolidate Aliyev regime, recover occupied districts and conquer Shusha, a symbolic town for them (2nd largest town in NK). It was the capital of Karabakh Khanate and has both an important Muslim and Christian heritage (5/n)
Moreover they don't seem willing to integrate Armenians (who aren't mostly interested on it) and having Armenians within the country would probably be problematic for AZ. They have also achieve to open a comunication between mainland AZ and th exclave of Nakhchivan (6/n)
ARMENIA. AR has been the great loser of the war, losing many part of the land that previously controlled. But it could have been worse, having managed to kept most of NK, a corridor with Armenia and 3 out of 4 largest towns (Stepanakert, Martuni and Martakert) (7/n)
The deal has caused troubles back in AR, with many people feeling humillated (8/n)
Now I'll mention the priorities that AR may have in the future negotiation with AZ (9/n)
1) Referendum on Nagorno Karabakh. The 1st and most difficult clause for the negotiation. Armenia won't agree on a final solution that it won't include a referendum of independence of NK (probably to join later Armenia). It has to be seen how open AZ is to accept that (10/n)
2) Recover Dadivank Monastery. This monastery first was mentioned in the 9th century (although founded by St. Dadi, a disciple of Thaddeus the Apostle). It's one of the most important sights and religious temples in NK. The deal placed it under Azeri control. (11/n)
3) Achieve Tsitsernavank Monastery. Another monastery, in Laçin district (only 5 km far from Armenia), that was built in the 5th-6th centuries. (12/n)
4) Increase the size of Lachin Corridor. Under this deal the corridor is only 5 km wide and probably Armenia would want to increase its size, at least to make it 10 km wide. (13/n)
5) Give geographical consistence to territory. Although all the territory in NK is connected, there are some Azeri "land entries" (see clearly in the image) that may be wanted to be gained, mainly around Mirikand. (14/n)
6) Exclave in Tigranakert. This small village in Ağdam district has the archaeological excavations of a town of the 2nd-1st century BC founded by the Armenian king Tigranes the Great (or his father Tigranes I). (15/n)
Obviously Azerbaijan won't accept this petitions without a prize. Now comes the things that Armenia can offer Azerbaijan for thier priorities. (16/n)
1. Tunnel between the district of Qubadlı and Nakhchevan. Already has already accepted to offer a communications between this sides on AR. But AZ can be interested in building a 40 km long tunnel under AR's mountains that would be their part of their sovereign territory. (17/n)
2. Tunnel between the district of Kəlbəcər and Nakhchevan. This new cession would manage to connect all this district (now there's no road to AZ) to Nakhchevan, linking Ganja (AZ's 2nd largest city) and the exclave in a road of 200 km and a tunnel of 30 km long. (18/n)
3. Recovering Gülüstan and keeping Shahbulag Castle. The first one are the ruins of Caucasian Albanian castle (AZ tends to recognise its self on them) and the latter is a castle near Tigranakert that was built by the Karabakh Khanate. (19/n).
4). Northern exclaves. AZ has de iure some villages inside Armenia (although controlled by AR) that were in the first peace deals the night the definitive ceasefire was done, although it didn't appear. Armenia could also provide some land corridors to them. (20/n)
If this solution took place, it would leave each country somehow like in the following maps: (21/n)
After the war the perspective of a peace deal is still very difficult but I think that it's closer. Mainly because AZ is satisfied with its gains and would probably want to focus on rebuilding the area and AR wants to secure the most of NK (22/n)
Having solved NK, Armenia would finally be able to focus on other important issues (such as improving the living conditions of its people, infrastructure...) as PM Nikol Pashinyan promised when he arrived to office. (23/n)
To finished restoring "national pride", apart of gaining the priorities previously mentioned, AR could develop a plan to attract its diaspora back to Armenia (that would bring knowledge and probably prosperity). (24/n)
Another idea could be founding new towns in NK with the name of lost ones like New Shushi (նոր սուշի) or New Hadrut (նոր հադրութ) to resettle there people who lived in those towns and surrounding area, embellising them. (25/n)
On the other side, with the mentioned tunnels, Azerbaijan would be able to connect Nakhchevan with Hadrut (150 km road), with Baku (410 km) and building a train connection too (now it's done by plane or via Iran). It would also connect Baku with Turkey in 500 km of road. (26/n)
To conclude, although the war has just finished, the final solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may be close to its final end if both side want it. Thank your for your attention and I'd love to discuss with anyone on this respectfully (27/27)
