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A few random thoughts this morning on what Democrats should take from the election results, as the recriminations and so on begin
1) Democrats shouldn't blame themselves for *quite* so much!
This election was about Trump. He was the incumbent. It was a referendum on him, and everyone knew it. If the GOP did better, it's mainly because Trump was stronger than understood--not simply because Dems blew it
This election was about Trump. He was the incumbent. It was a referendum on him, and everyone knew it. If the GOP did better, it's mainly because Trump was stronger than understood--not simply because Dems blew it
Or put differently: I'm not really sure there was much Democrats could do about what happened here. Trump completely dominated American life for the last four years, people knew what they thought of it, and it's hard to believe there were magic words to undo it
2) Democrats *do* need to recognize just how much Trump pitch has really undermined the way they usually win elections.
This has been true since 2016, but it's been obscured by the focus on Trump's appeals on race/immigration--and that liberals didn't appreciate the 'old' way
This has been true since 2016, but it's been obscured by the focus on Trump's appeals on race/immigration--and that liberals didn't appreciate the 'old' way
To oversimplify *a lot*: between 92-12, Dems won elections by saying that the GOP was the party of business/corporations and the religious right.
They were at their best when they could attack the GOP for outsourcing and trying to get rid of Planned Parenthood.
They were at their best when they could attack the GOP for outsourcing and trying to get rid of Planned Parenthood.
This playbook didn't work against Trump
On economics, he flipped the tables on outsourcing/trade/China, took social security off the table, and added immigration as a pitch, etc.
Yes, he kept the tax cuts. But this is a far stronger economic position for the GOP
On economics, he flipped the tables on outsourcing/trade/China, took social security off the table, and added immigration as a pitch, etc.
Yes, he kept the tax cuts. But this is a far stronger economic position for the GOP
On cultural issues, no one was going to see Trump as the embodiment of cultural conservatism--no matter who he nominated to the courts.
Instead, Democrats attacked him more on his conduct/statements--and I think we can say this just wasn't as material as Dems wanted
Instead, Democrats attacked him more on his conduct/statements--and I think we can say this just wasn't as material as Dems wanted
3) Democrats have a really tough to choice on how to compete with a Trump-like GOP.
OTOH, they appear unwilling to own the anti-Trump position on many of his favored issues--IE become a rich left-liberal party of free trade, immigration, no trade wars, various lefty social stuff
OTOH, they appear unwilling to own the anti-Trump position on many of his favored issues--IE become a rich left-liberal party of free trade, immigration, no trade wars, various lefty social stuff
OTOH, they do not appear willing to co-opt his message, and several influential minorities of the party remain pretty committed to playing into the Trump wedge issues where the party, as a whole, realizes it's not on firm ground (defund police as one ex.)
4) Incumbency is really powerful. It's a lot easier to set the agenda and define what you're for when you're in charge. For ex.: if Biden wants to be tough on China and own that issue, he can do that in a way Democrats simply couldn't when Trump was POTUS.
As a result, Dems don't have to try and figure out how to win the last election. They do need a better pitch: their 92-16 pitch is gone, and their 16-20 pitch (trump bad) is gone now too. But Trump was also a big impediment to a better pitch, and there's more room for it now
And it is not at all clear that the GOP will pursue every strategic part of the Trump message. I'd guess they will on cultural issues. The economic stuff? I think it'll be hard for someone else to be as good at bashing China, for ex. They won't be getting credit for stimulus
