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The 29yo ceasefire is broken, and #Morocco and #WesternSahara are once again in armed conflict.
https://www.spsrasd.info/news/en/articles/2020/11/14/28491.html
Without a quick ceasefire, here’s a few things we can expect in the coming days, weeks, and months (a thread 1/13):
https://www.spsrasd.info/news/en/articles/2020/11/14/28491.html
Without a quick ceasefire, here’s a few things we can expect in the coming days, weeks, and months (a thread 1/13):
A fierce Moroccan response. Occupation of W Sahara is an existentially defining feature for the Moroccan gov. They see the territory as Moroccan and Sahrawis as separatists (although no one outside Morocco accepts this description.) Think France in Algeria in the 60s. 2/13
An equivalent response from @Polisario_. They’ve been in refugee camps for 45 years. They’re tired of it. People under 40 regularly lobby their gov-in-exile to return to conflict. “What was taken by force must be retaken by force” is the repeated refrain from young Sahrawis. 3/13
I expect near universal among young Sahrawi men if the conflict drags out. 29 years in desert camps with little diplomatic success has made them itch for a fight. Here, read this 2018 report from @CrisisGroup: https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/western-sahara/youth-movement-sahrawi-refugee-camps 4/13
Yet the diplomatic contest will be as fierce as the military. The Sahrawis have diplomats all over. They'll be scrambling for facetime with other govs, and airtime in news coverage. Here. Map of their diplomatic density for the last 5 years, from one of my working papers 5/13
The of #Sahrawi Republic ( #SADR) to plead for countries to take their side. They’ll argue the #UN recognizes WS as non-self-governing, and inaction is abetting illegal conquest. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/09/can-john-bolton-thaw-western-saharas-long-frozen-conflict-morocco-western-sahara-polisario-minurso-sahrawi-republic/ 6/13
Arab/Francophone countries support Morocco. They tell Gulf countries “Our monarchy fails, you’re next.” Morocco also has support of France, which flexes Africa muscles through Morocco. And Israel sees the parallel between Palestinian and WS situations. 7/ https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201114-uae-backs-morocco-over-western-sahara-border-zone/
Anglophone, other AU countries neutral or back Polisario. Algeria, South Africa, and south and east African nations have invested in a free Sahara. This tests that friendship. Another map from working paper. Blue ones take more favorable stances towards the Sahr Repub. 8/13
#UNSC to do nothing. France always backed Morocco. No reason to expect otherwise now. It will veto. The USA has warm relations w/ Morocco too, but has been mostly neutral. When Baker failed to make the US take hard line '03, he resigned.
Short history: https://bit.ly/3f6SUWM 9/
Short history: https://bit.ly/3f6SUWM 9/
Moroccan disinformation. Lots of it. The Moroccan government claims Sahrawis are actually strategically placed Algerians, trying to get access to Morocco’s territory. Never mind Sahrawi language, culture, and religious practice are all different from Algeria or Morocco. 10/13
Sahrawi attempts to counter it, which mostly fail (IMO). The @spsrasdinfo will put out a counterstatement for every Moroccan statement, and vice versa. Morocco is recognized state, will carry its voice further. An inherent difficulty facing Sahr diplomats, activists, journalists.
And finally, a fierce, active Moroccan social media presence, repeating the official Moroccan narrative and attacking posts and threads that don’t. I suspect we’ll watch that happen on this very thread, if it goes anywhere. 12/13
Inshallah this is a short skirmish, and world powers will use this crisis to fix its failure to resolve this conflict diplomatically, on a short timeline. But it’s 2020, and I have the habit of taking hope with a grain of ملح
(fin)
(fin)
